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Western European Fixed Telecoms: Market Sizings and Forecasts 2008?2014
Analysys Mason Group, Dec 2008


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This report analyses current trends and market developments in the Western European fixed market, and presents comprehensive forecasts for the region as a whole, as well as individually for Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK.

Both the report slide pack and the Excel data annex provide detailed forecasts of subscriber numbers, average spend per site and overall spend for three types of site (residential, small and medium business, and large business) and three basic service categories (narrowband, broadband and business networks) subdivided into appropriate service components.

In addition, the forecasts provide line data forecasts for seven narrowband and broadband access technologies, broken down by business and residential segments, and volume forecasts for PSTN and VoIP originated traffic.

The annex to the report provides detailed forecasts of end-user average spend and average spend per site (ASPS) (in local currencies, euros and US dollars), number of sites and number of lines for 17 countries listed above.

Detail is provided by three areas of service…

NARROWBAND, broken down by the following services

- PSTN/ISDN voice rental
- PSTN/ISDN voice calls
- Dial-up Internet access

BROADBAND, broken down by the following technologies

- DSL – lines of all the family of DSL technologies, including ADSL and its variants, SDSL and its variants and VDSL, irrespective of downstream speed
- Cable-modem – irrespective of downstream speed
- Residential FTTB – fibre to the building. Includes both Ethernet and PON families of technologies. Excludes VDSL where the cabinet is in the building
- Broadband FWA – any wireless transmission technology that delivers from a fixed hub to distributed fixed points, including apartment WLAN but excluding cellular mobile.
- Broadband satellite – unidirectional or bidirectional service
- Other fixed broadband – includes principally in the residential segment non-FTTB LANs and powerline technologies, and in the business segment leased lines and dedicated fibre for Internet access

Site penetration of the following parts of broadband service bundles is provided
- VoIP – PSTN emulation services, excluding peer-to-peer
- IPTV – telco TV delivered over a broadband connection and including linear TV content

BUSINESS NETWORK SERVICES – managed and unmanaged non-IP data services, including leased lines, plus managed IP data services.
...and by three market segments…

- Residential sites (households) – includes work-from-home spend, even when paid for by a business based at a separate site
- Small and medium business sites – sites with between 0 and 499 employees
- Large business sites – sites with more than 500 employees
Residential sites (households) are further broken down into five overlapping categories
- Narrowband sites – sites with narrowband access technologies
- Broadband sites – sites with broadband access technologies or leased lines. The definition is technological, and independent of any minimum downstream speed
- Narrowband-only sites – sites with narrowband access technologies but no broadband access technology
- Narrowband and broadband sites – sites with both narrowband and broadband access technologies
- Broadband-only sites – sites with broadband access technology but no narrowband access technology

Small and medium business sites are further broken down into two categories
- Broadband – sites with broadband access technologies or leased lines. The definition is technological, and independent of any minimum downstream speed
- Narrowband-only sites – sites with narrowband access technologies but no broadband access technology
In addition, line data is broken down by the principal narrowband and broadband fixed technologies:

- PSTN – all standard analogue lines, whether or not they are overlaid or augmented by other technologies (such as xDSL). Includes circuit-switched cable telephony lines, but excludes direct access VoIP
- ISDN – includes lines with xDSL overlays, but not ISDN equivalents such as multi-channel VoATM and VoIP
- DSL – lines of all the family of DSL technologies, including ADSL and its variants, SDSL and its variants and VDSL, irrespective of downstream speed
- Cable-modem – irrespective of downstream speed
- Residential FTTB – fibre to the building. Includes both Ethernet and PON families of technologies. Excludes VDSL where the cabinet is in the building
- Broadband FWA – any wireless transmission technology that delivers from a fixed hub to distributed fixed points, including apartment WLAN but excluding cellular mobile.
- Broadband satellite – unidirectional or bidirectional service
- Other fixed broadband – includes principally in the residential segment non-FTTB LANs and powerline technologies, and in the business segment leased lines and dedicated fibre for Internet access

Minute data is provided for fixed-originated calls using

- PSTN/ISDN voice – broken down by business and residential segments
- VoIP – broken down by business and residential segments


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