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Global Pharmaceutical & Biotechnology Outlook 2013: India Pharma Product Image

Global Pharmaceutical & Biotechnology Outlook 2013: India Pharma

  • Published: January 2013
  • Region: Global, India
  • 50 Pages
  • MP Advisors

FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Aurobindo
  • Biocon
  • Cadila Healthcare
  • Cipla
  • Dishman
  • Dr Reddy’s
  • MORE

Global Pharmaceutical & Biotechnology Outlook 2013: India Pharma

India pharma rode on the wave of bunched up patent expiries in the US with many Para IV launches in 2012. In addition, it also benefited from the continuing high teen growth of Indian pharma market. With patent expiries in the US dwindling from $30b in 2012 to $10b in 2013 (small molecules), Indian generic companies will now need to focus on complex generics that offer sustainability of earnings. Locally acting drugs and targeted drug delivery products make up for the bulk of complex formulation generics. We have analyzed this space and have provided a fairly comprehensive list of products falling under these categories indicating that topical drugs remains the most near term opportunity for generics. Inhalers offer the most lucrative opportunity, though not before 2016.

Our growth outlook on Indian market continues to remain optimistic with 15-18% growth. This is based on the silent reforms in India that started with implementation of a strict GMP (Good Manufacturing Practices) in 2005, continued with implementation of GLP (Good Laboratories Practices) in 2011 and now the bar coding norms at primary READ MORE >

I. India Pharma: Complex Formulations - The Next Leap Forward

- Complex Generics – Life after the Patent Cliff
- Complex Generics – Scope and Opportunity
- Opportunities in Formulation Expertise

II. Targeted and Locally Acting Drugs: Opportunities for Generic Companies

- Liposomal Drugs
- Colon Targeted Drugs
- Transdermal Drugs
- Topical Dermatological Drugs
- Inhalers

III. Domestic Formulations: Reforms and Consolidation Continue

- GMP Norms in 2005 Helped Consolidation
- Good Laboratory Practices - Introduced from 1 Nov 2010
- GMP + GLP = Growth of Big Firms At the Cost of SMEs
- Bar Coding on Packaging – Improves India’s Image But At a Cost

IV. New Pharma Pricing Policy: Neutral to Positive for the Industry

India Pharma – Company Analysis

1. IPCA: Momentum Continues
- Anti Malarial Tender Business – Continues to Drive Growth
- US Generics – Temporary Delay at Indore SEZ
- Domestic Formulations – Growth on Track
- Margins – Limited Scope of Improvement

2. Natco Pharma: Entering the Big League Through Multi Pronged Strategy

- Domestic Formulations - Onco Focused Portfolio
- Venezuela – Potential Oncology Market for Natco
- Para IV Opportunities– A Free Call Option

3. Sun Pharma: Balance Sheet Leveraging at Play

- DUSA Acquisition – Targeting High Value
- Acquisition of Taro’s Minority Stake – The Offer Might be Revised Further
- US Formulations – Growth Continues
- Domestic Pharma – Underlying Healthy Growth

4. Aurobindo: Still Not Out of the Woods

- US formulations – Growth led by New Launches and Forex
- Product Filing details
- ARV formulations – Modest Outlook
- Margins Improvement led by High US Formulations
- Debt – Continues to Remain High

5. Dishman: Management accepts the Limitations of Pure Play CRAMS

- India CRAMS –Management admits to the Challenges Faced
- Carbogen Amcis – Recovery looks Distant
- Dishman Netherlands – Margins Unlikely to Sustain at Current Levels
- Debt – Continues to Remain High

6. Biocon: Expenses More Visible than Growth Drivers

- IN-105 Deal with BMS – More Discouraging than Encouraging
- Biopharma Sales – Is Simvastatin under Pressure?
- Insugen Trial Data Does Not Excite
- Branded Formulations Growing Robustly
- Contract Research – Getting ready for the IPO
- R&D Expenses – Likely To Increase

7. Cadila Healthcare: In a Phase of Consolidation

- Domestic Formulations – New Product Launches will Drive Growth
- US Formulations – Supplies to partners from Moraiya Facility Raised Concerns
- Para IV opportunities – Lialda and Asacol HD
- Urokinase – Microbix acquisition
- JV Performance – To be Driven by Nycomed and Bayer in Future

8. Cipla: Weakness in Regulated Markets Persists

- Domestic Formulations– Steady Growth
- Export Formulations – High Growth led by Lexapro
- Vancomycin – Unlikely To Be Big
- Dymista – Uncertainty About Upside
- Indore SEZ Received USFDA Approval
- Margins – Unlikely to Sustain
- Cipla Inhaler Opportunity – Why We Remain Concerned

9. Dr Reddy’s Lab: Moderate Earnings due to High Base and Upfront Investment

- US Generics –Recent Launches are Likely to Ramp up
- Upcoming Products Updates
- OctoPlus Acquisition – An Investment in Complex Technology
- Domestic Formulations – Steady Growt

10. Lupin: Margin Worry on Base Business

- US Generics – Tricor to Arrest Decline in Fortamet and Geodon
- Key Product Updates
- Oral Contraceptives – Expectations High
- Branded Segment–Awaiting Suprax Drops
- Japan– High Growth Led by Favorable Forex and I’Rom
- Domestic – Keeping the Momentum

11. Ranbaxy: Base Business - Margin improvement Still Uncertain

- Base Business Margin – Improvement is Awaited
- US Formulations – Delay in Diovan Approval Highlights USFDA Issues Once Again
- Tricor – Ranbaxy not among the first ones to launch
- Other Geographies – Muted Performance

List of Tables

1. Branded Liposomal Drugs and Generic Approvals in US
2. Branded Colon Targeted Drugs and Generic Approvals in US
3. Branded Transdermal Drugs and Generic Approvals in US
4. Branded Topical Drugs and Generic Approvals in US
5. Acquisitions in Dermatology Segment
6. Branded Inhalation Drugs and Generic Approvals in US
7. History of Wholesale Price Indices in India
8. Cipla’s Inhaler Portfolio – Approved Products and Competitive Landscape
9. Cipla’s Inhaler Portfolio – Pipeline Products and Competitive Landscape

- Natco
- Ipca
- Sun Pharma
- Cadila Healthcare
- Cipla
- Lupin
- Dr Reddy’s
- Biocon
- Ranbaxy
- Aurobindo
- Dishman

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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