New Zealand Agribusiness Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, November 2012, Pages: 64
The agribusiness sector will remain a significant driver of New Zealand’s economy, as it is a key source of exports earnings. We believe the country will have to ramp up investment in infrastructure in order to stay ahead of the growing competition coming from lower-cost countries in Asia and Latin America. In the shorter term, we expect ‘super flush’ dairy production to come to an end with the return of normal pasture conditions, while the livestock industry will show mild output growth.
Key Trends:
- Milk powder production growth to 2016/17: 5.3% to 1.3mn tonnes. Across all the dairy segments, export opportunities (particularly to China) will be the main growth drivers over the medium term.
- Milk production growth to 2016/17: -3.0% to 19.3mn tonnes. The drop is due to base effects. Given the small domestic consumption base and the high productivity of the sector,
long-term expansion will mainly come from export opportunities, particularly to Asia and the Middle East, which are forecast to register significant dairy consumption growth to 2016/17.
- Poultry production growth to 2016/17: 14.6% to 177,600 tonnes. We expect the poultry segment to be an outperformer among the livestock sector. Increased domestic value-added production has lifted the fortunes and potential profitability of the sector, encouraging more farmers to consider poultry farming.
- 2013 real GDP growth: 2.2% year-on-year (y-o-y), up from 1.4% in 2012; forecast to average 2.3% from 2012 until 2017.
- 2013 consumer price inflation: 1.8% (up from 1.5% in 2012; forecast to average 2.2% from 2012 until 2017).
- 2013 central bank policy rate: 2.50% (identical to 2012; forecast to average 3.80% from 2012 until 2017).
Key Developments:
Fonterra, the world’s biggest dairy exporter and main producers’ cooperative of New Zealand, will hand out in 2012/13 the lowest payouts to farmers since 2008. The price paid to farmers will be NZD5.65-
5.75/kg, down 31.5% from the record NZD8.25/kg in 2010/11. The decision is based on the continued strength of the New Zealand dollar, which is eroding profits from rising commodity prices. Although we expect front-month CME milk prices to average higher in 2013 (at US$18.00/cwt), farmers are unlikely to reap the benefits of higher milk prices. The impact on GDP could be significant given the fact that the dairy sector accounts for 8% of New Zealand’s total GDP.
In July 2012, the government of New Zealand announced an NZD23mn programme aimed at producing high-quality marbled grass-fed beef through cooperation with the Ministry for Primary Industries and agribusiness companies Brownrigg Agriculture and Firstlight Foods. The investment partnership is expected to be spread out over seven years, with the ministry providing NZD11mn for the start-up costs and the balance coming from the two private companies.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
New Zealand Agriculture SWOT 7
New Zealand Business Environment SWOT 8
Supply & Demand Analysis 9
New Zealand Livestock Outlook 9
Table: New Zealand Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 10
Table: New Zealand Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 10
Table: New Zealand Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 10
Table: New Zealand Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 14
Table: New Zealand Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 14
Table: New Zealand Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 14
New Zealand Dairy Outlook 15
Table: New Zealand Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 16
Table: New Zealand Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 16
Table: New Zealand Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 16
Table: New Zealand Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 17
Table: New Zealand Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 24
Table: New Zealand Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 25
Table: New Zealand Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 25
Table: New Zealand Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 25
Commodity Price Analysis 27
Monthly Softs Update 27
Cocoa: Sufficient Supply 27
Coffee: Temporary Rally 29
Cotton: Against Resistance 31
Palm Oil: Outperforming The Oilseeds Complex 32
Sugar: Surging Supply 34
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts 36
Monthly Grains Update 37
Wheat: Resilience On Borrowed Time 38
Corn: Looking The Weakest 40
Soybean: Little Relief Ahead 41
Rice: A Strong Performer 43
Table: Select Commodities – Performance & BMI Forecasts 44
Upstream Analysis 45
Asia Machinery Outlook 45
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 49
Asia GM Outlook 53
Table: Select Countries Growing GM Crops 56
Country Snapshot 57
Table: New Zealand’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 58
Table: New Zealand’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 59
Table: New Zealand’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 60
Table: New Zealand’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 60
Our Forecast Modelling
61
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 61
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