Executive summary
- Why non-neutrality is an issue for mobile operators
- Major practical challenges to creating non-neutral models
- Analytical frameworks for assessing new models
- Forecasts & recommendations

Mobile broadband & Internet: Market dynamics
- Introduction
- Mobile Internet vs. mobile data
- History and the emergence of Mobile Internet
- Mobile data & Internet market size & penetration
- Mobile Internet access: implications for operators & vendors
- Vendors
- Developed-market saturation
- Two-sided business models for mobile data/Internet P
- Traffic growth & congestion
- The "OTT threat"

Neutrality: relevance, regulation & controversy.
- Net Neutrality defined
- Net
- Neutrality
- Disruptive Analysis house view: avoiding confirmation bias
- The main arguments
- 2014: Regulatory turmoil & status update
- US Net Neutrality developments
- What is a "specialised service"?

Non-neutral broadband: Generic challenges.
1. No clear definition of "an app" or "service" Multi-app experiences. Partial-app experiences.
2. Business Model Fit, International challenges.
3. Apps' data usage is device-dependent
4. Devices, OSs & QoS / non-neutrality
5. HTML5 changes the game again
6. Poor fit with WiFi use and femtocell offload
7. OSS/BSS challenges
8. Pricing, selling & marketing non-neutrality
9. Network dependencies & standards
10. Arbitrage & other unintended consequences
11. Mobile broadband is not like fixed
12. Organisational challenges in service providers

Main models for non-neutral mobile broadband:
- Analytical framework
- Application-specific charging & packages
- Single-app packages.
- Traffic class (eg video)
- App group/class packaging
- Proxy-based
- User-defined packages: Multi-app packages & "favourite" apps.
- Sponsored data / 1-800 data
- Reverse-billed advertising
- Sponsored websites / web-apps
- 1-800 / tollfree apps.
- Enterprise & BYOD
- Zero-rating
- Telco-OTT applications
- Bundled paid apps
- Bundled free apps
- Free service & support data
- Specialised services / QoS "fast lane"
- Venue-based services & applications.
- Managed enterprise broadband
- Public safety
- Mobile IPTV / Video
- M2M / IOT
- Web/App Acceleration
- Impeding & blocking / QoS "slow lane"
- Unenforced terms & conditions
- Blocking & throttling
- Parental Control
- Deliberate degradation
- User-defined throttling / prioritisation
- MVNO / wholesale offers
- The "Kindle model"
- Differentiated MVNOs
- Other / miscellaneous approaches
- Content modification.
- Customer-centric prioritisation
- CDNs and paid-peering
- The insurance-premium model

Forecasts, conclusions & recommendations
- Market forecasts: How much revenue from non-neutrality?
- Can two-sided business models work?

Summary
- Recommendations for mobile operators
- Recommendations for content & application providers
- Recommendations for regulators
- Recommendations for network/software vendors
- Recommendations for investors
- Recommendations for industry bodies, lobbyists & activists

Figure 1: Mobile data & Internet access revenues, worldwide, 2012-2019
Figure 2: Existing mobile Internet access market vs. new non-neutral models
Figure 3: New non-neutral mobile broadband models - growth & segmentation
Figure 4: Mobile data includes both Internet access & other applications
Figure 5: Mobile data & mobile Internet timeline
Figure 6: Mobile data & Internet access revenues, worldwide, 2012-2019
Figure 7: Post-paid & pre-paid mobile Internet users, worldwide, 2012-2019
Figure 8: Prepay/postpay split by global region, 2012
Figure 9: Post- & pre-paid mobile Internet access ARPU, worldwide, 2012-2019
Figure 10: Mobile Internet/data access revenues, worldwide, 2012-2019
Figure 11: Mobile operators have many groups building data business models
Figure 12: Policy-management vendors' use-cases are proliferating
Figure 13: GSMA view of addressable market for mobile data
Figure 14: Two-sided telecoms business models are appealing, in theory
Figure 15: Data traffic growth driven by # of users to a large extent
Figure 16: Data growth in developed markets is linear not exponential
Figure 17: OTT apps extend the market, rather than compete directly
Figure 18: Networks may block ports/functions - eg SSL on WiFi hotspot
Figure 19: What is an app, and who is responsible for its data use?
Figure 20: Complexity - Multi-app user journey but a single "experience"
Figure 21: Multifunctional apps & mashups will need "partial toll-free"
Figure 22: Can mobile apps request QoS or give performance needs?
Figure 23: WiFi is multi-stakeholder & not controlled by MNOs
Figure 24: Example of a proposed "sponsored connectivity" architecture
Figure 25: Complexity of 3GPP standards relating to policy-control
Figure 26: Globe application-specific pricing example
Figure 27: Movistar Colombia application-group pricing example
Figure 28: User-selected app-based data plan (illustrative)
Figure 29: Sponsored advertising content on in-flight WiFi
Figure 30: Countries with free Wikipedia Zero mobile access
Figure 31: Facebook is pushing hard for zero-rating
Figure 32: Many countries & mobile operators block or throttle P2P traffic
Figure 33: Some operators offer fine-grained parental content control
Figure 34: Various device vendors form or partner MVNOs for bundled data
Figure 35: Device-bundled data example from Macheen
Figure 36: Example architecture for private network/MVNO roaming
Figure 37: Example of web-browser overlay data
Figure 38: CDNs / ADNs target the "middle mile", not the "neutral" last-mile
Figure 39: Internet peering and transit
Figure 40: Existing mobile Internet access market vs. new non-neutral models
Figure 41: New non-neutral mobile b-band models - growth & segmentation
Figure 42: Non-neutral mobile data models - 1 vs. 2-sided segmentation

Table 1: Selected examples of non-neutral mobile data models, mid-2014
Table 2: Analytical framework for non-neutral models
Table 3: Overall mobile data market inc. Internet, SMS & VAS, 2012-2019
Table 4: Global mobile data access users, prepay/postpay/M2M, 2012-2019
Table 5: Global mobile data access revs, prepay/postpay/M2M, 2012-2019
Table 6: Key arguments for and against Net Neutrality
Table 7: Analytical framework for non-neutral models
Table 8: Key success criteria for single-app subscription models
Table 9: Forecast users & revenues for "single-app" mobile data, 2012-2019
Table 10: Key success criteria for "traffic class" business models
Table 11: Forecast users & revenues for "traffic class" mobile data,
Table 12: Key success criteria for "app class" business models
Table 13: Forecast users & revenues for "app class" mobile data, 2012-2019
Table 14: Key success criteria for data proxy-based business models
Table 15: Key success criteria for "favourite apps" business models
Table 16: Forecast users & revs for "favourite apps" mobile data, 2012-2019
Table 17: Key success criteria for sponsored advert data business models
Table 18: Forecast users & revs for "sponsored advert data", 2012-2019
Table 19: Key success criteria for sponsored website data business models
Table 20: Forecast users & revs for "sponsored web" mobile data, 2012-2019
Table 21: Key success criteria for toll-free/1-800 mobile app business models
Table 22: Forecast users & revs for "toll-free/1-800 apps" models, 2012-2019
Table 23: Key success criteria for sponsored BYOD data business models
Table 24: Forecast users & revs for "sponsored BYOD" mobile data, 2012-2019
Table 25: Forecast users for "zero-rated apps" mobile data, 2012-2019
Table 26: Key success criteria for zero-rated TelcoOTT app business models
Table 27: Key success criteria for zero-rated bundled paid app/content models
Table 28: Key success criteria for zero-rated bundled free app/content models
Table 29: Key success criteria for zero-rated service/support app biz models
Table 30: Key success criteria for public-venue specialised service models
Table 31: Forecast users & revs for "public venue" specialised svcs, 2012-2019
Table 32: Key success criteria for "business class" priority data biz models
Table 33: Forecast users & revs for "business class" priority data, 2012-2019
Table 34: Key success criteria for public safety priority data biz models
Table 35: Forecast carrier revenues for public safety priority data, 2012-2019
Table 36: Key success criteria for mobile IPTV/VoD priority data biz models
Table 37: Forecast users & revs for mobile IPTV/VoD priority data, 2012-2019
Table 38: Key success criteria for M2M/IoT priority data biz models
Table 39: Forecast users & revs for mobile M2M/IoT priority data, 2012-2019
Table 40: Key success criteria for web/app-acceleration data biz models
Table 41: Forecast users & revs for mobile web acceleration priority, 2012-2019 P
Table 42: Forecast unilateral app/VoIP blocking/degrading by MNOs, 2012-2019
Table 43: Key success criteria for "unenforced terms & conditions "models
Table 44: Key success criteria for VoIP & app blocking/throttling biz models
Table 45: Key success criteria for parental content-control biz models
Table 46: Key success criteria for deliberate app-degradation models
Table 47: Key success criteria for user-defined throttling/policy biz models
Table 48: Key success criteria for vertically-integrated "Kindle" biz models
Table 49: Forecast users & revenues for Kindle-model mobile data, 2012-2019
Table 50: Key success criteria for QoS-enabled MVNO data biz models
Table 51: Forecast users & revenues for QoS-enabled MVNO data, 2012-2019
Table 52: Mobile data business models summary & global forecast, 2012-2019
Table 53: Key non-neutral business models revenue global forecast, 2012-2019
Table 54: Non-neutral mobile data models - 1 vs. 2-sided segmentation