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OLED for Lighting 2012: How to Drive OLED to a $1.7B Market Opportunity by 2020
Yole Development, November 2012, Pages: 283
How to Drive OLED to a $1.7B Market Opportunity by 2020
OLED INDUSTRY IS JUST ENTERING THE LIGHTING MARKET
OLED revenue has been driven mainly by display applications (smartphones…) but the industry is now targeting the lighting market based on the technology specificities in terms of design (form factor) and efficiency. On this new battleground, OLED will have to compete with LED technology which has already paved the way with a revolution in Solid State Lighting (SSL) that has drawn attention away from OLED over the last 10 years. Added to that, the high cost of OLED technology will not make mass market penetration easier and current low efficacy could slow adoption.
OLEDs will develop slowly in the lighting market (Automotive and General lighting) and attract mainly niche applications (specialty and high-end lighting), differentiating through design possibilities. To access traditional market segments (commercial lighting, office lighting…), OLED technology will have to find a spark, as well as combine enough different niche markets to achieve the economies of scale that will decrease costs. In our estimation, this should be triggered by 2014 with the use of larger substrates and better process control.
We estimate that OLED lighting panels will reach a market size of nearly $2.8M in 2012 and will peak to nearly $1.7B by 2020 (Fig. 1). Growth will be driven mainly by General Lighting applications, representing more than 70% of the overall OLED lighting business in 2020.
The report presents all OLED Lighting applications and associated market metrics for the period 2012-2020, providing details about drivers & challenges, volume and market size per application…
WHICH TECHNOLOGY APPROACHES CAN DRIVE OLED INTO MASS PRODUCTION?
As for any emerging technology, a large variety of materials and OLED structures are used in production or tested. Moreover, alternatives to existing materials are still actively researched in order to improve the light performance, lifetime, and decrease manufacturing costs. Although the uncertainty about the future winning material approach between small-molecule OLED materials and polymer materials remains, polymers continue to struggle to demonstrate the ability to turn their cost and performance potential into an industrial reality.
Rigid glass maintains its exclusivity as a substrate material in OLED lighting panel production. However, progress has been made in the development of techniques, such as roll-to-roll processing, the development of flexible ultra-thin glass and flexible encapsulation solutions, which will enable the progressive penetration of flexible OLED panels into the lighting market.
The wide variety of technology approaches provides opportunity for numerous players involved in OLED Research & Development activities (Fig. 2). However, the identification of winning technology approaches and the precise identification of the corresponding time-to-market are essential for the successful development of the OLED lighting business.
The report presents a deep analysis of OLED technology, OLED manufacturing and associated roadmaps,providing details about different OLED structures, requirements for each layer, materials used, different manufacturing techniques and associated equipment, manufacturing costs…
THE RISE OF OLED LIGHTING WILL DEPEND ON STRATEGIES OF OLED PANELS MANUFACTURERS
To fully compete with LED technology and obtain the full benefits of OLEDs at a reasonable cost, new business models are mandatory as the traditional lighting industry will be reluctant to integrate new technology as it could eat away at margins: OLED cost directly impacts the cost of OLED-based luminaires. Added to that, these players will also have to integrate technology for which they have no know-how and which is outside of their expertise. So the question is: Will these players be ready to accept decreases in revenue and increases in production difficulty simply to aid the deployment of a new technology? The logical answer is no.
For that reason, development of OLED technology in the lighting market will be difficult and will force actors at the bottom of the supply chain to realize vertical integration in order to push the technology on the market. But accessing distribution channels will represent the big challenge for those players who will have to develop new approaches to sell their lighting products. The rise of OLED lighting will therefore depend on the right merger of the emerging OLED industry with the traditional lighting industry. Moreover, for General Lighting, the main challenge for OLEDs will be to identify the “spark”market that will allow the technology to develop economies of scale and to create a marketing window conveying advantages and possibilities of the technology toward consumers.
The report presents an analysis of OLED lighting industry, providing details about supply chain, main players, collaborations…
KEY FEATURES OF THE REPORT
- Technology and cost roadmap until 2020 with a detailed analysis of cost reduction factors.
- Detailed overview of the different materials, OLED structures and manufacturing techniques used in OLED lighting panel manufacturing. Focus on the potential of flexible vs. rigid substrates, smallmolecules vs. polymers and evaporation vs. solution-processable techniques (slot-die, ink-jet…).
- Key analyses regarding technology feasibility, customer needs and time-to-market enabling proper evaluation of the strategies to be chosen by material supplier, equipment maker and OLED panel and luminaire manufacturers.
- Market metrics, 2012-2020, for OLED Lighting market concerning general lighting and automotive lighting applications (market volume & market size).
WHO SHOULD BY THIS REPORT?
Equipment and materials, OLED panel manufacturers.
- Learn about the potential of OLED lighting market.
- Identify the opportunities for your current business in OLED lighting.
- Evaluate the market potential for your product.
- Avoid burning money by making the right technology choice.
Investors and newcomers in OLED business.
- Learn about challenges and understand the real potential for OLED lighting business.
- Understand the importance of IP and internal know-how in OLEDs.
- Secure your investment by focusing on the winning technology approaches and players with the highest potential for growth.
- Publication type: Technology, Applications, Industry & Market Report.
- Release date: November 2012.
- Number of slides: 290.
Format: PDF + Excel files.
2. Why this report?
3. General Introduction
4. Executive Summary
5. OLED Definition, Applications and Characteristics
- Introduction to OLEDs
- Applications and Market Segments of OLEDs
- The Ideal Lighting Source Features
- Why OLED for Lighting?
- OLED for Display vs. OLED for Lighting
- OLED Characteristics
- Comparison of OLED with Other Light Sources
- OLED Lighting Panels - Not Adapted for Retrofits
- Lighting Roadmap - To Higher Efficiency and New Designs with OLEDs
6. OLED Lighting Market
- Competition with LED Technology
- Automotive Lighting
- General Lighting
7. OLED Lighting Industry
- Supply Chain
- M&A, Investments and Fund Raising in OLED Lighting
- Partnerships & Licensing Agreement
8. OLED Structures and Materials
- Overview of the Structure of an OLED
- Different OLED Structures and Materials
- OLED Working Principle
- Bottom-Emitting, Top-Emitting and Transparent OLED
- Different Approaches to Obtain White OLEDs
- A Way to High Brightness - Tandem and p-i-n OLED
- OLED Organic Materials Classification
- OLED Layer Requirements and Materials Used
- Hole Injection Layer (HIL)
- Hole Transport Layer (HTL)
- Emissive Organic Materials
- Blocking Layer (BL)
- Electron Transport Layer (ETL)
- Electron Injection Layer (EIL)
- Light extraction
9. OLED Manufacturing Technique
- Sheet-to-sheet vs. Roll-to-Roll Deposition
- Manufacturing in Vacuum or Under Inert Atmosphere
- Deposition Technique Must be Adapted to the Material Used
- Deposition Techniques: Dry vs. Wet
- Small-Molecules in Solution: Best of the Two Worlds?
- OLED Manufacturing Process Flow
- Dry Deposition Techniques
- Solution Processing Techniques
- Organic Material Deposition Techniques
- Cathode Deposition
- Testing & Sorting
- OLED Panel Size Scaling
- OLED Drive Electronics
- Overview of Manufacturing Techniques Used in OLED Panel Manufacturing
- Key Messages to Equipment Manufacturers
10. OLED Manufacturing Cost
- OLED Manufacturing Cost as the Most Critical Barrier for OLED Lighting Market
- Roadmaps of Some OLED Players are Too Optimistic
- Introduction to OLED Lighting Panel Manufacturing Cost
- Assumptions on OLED Lighting Panel Manufacturing Cost
- OLED Lighting Panel Manufacturing Cost as of Q3 2012
- 2012 - 2020 OLED Lighting Panel Manufacturing Cost ($/m²)
- 2012 - 2020 OLED Lighting Panel Manufacturing Cost ($/klm)
- 2012 - 2020 OLED Lighting Panel Materials Cost ($/m²)
- How to Decrease the Manufacturing Cost?
- Milestones on the Way to the OLED Lighting Market
11. OLED R&D Roadmaps and Players
- State-of-the-art of OLED Lighting
- History of OLED Lighting
- OLEDs for Lighting are Approaching Mass Production
- Challenges of OLED Lighting
- OLED Lighting Market Development Phases
- OLED Technology Cost Requirements Depend on the Application Sector
- Goals for OLED Performance set-up Accordingly to LED One
- OLED for Lighting Roadmap
- Main OLED R&D Axis - Different Approaches to Achieve Low OLED Cost
- Ways to Improve OLED Device Efficiency
- Who Provide Financing for OLED Lighting R&D Activities?
- OLED Lighting R&D Projects Around the World
- OLED Lighting Technology Development is (at least Partially) Driven by Other Markets
- Main OLED Lighting R&D Players
- Standards and Testing in Lighting
12. General Conclusion
About Yole Développement and OLED Activity
- Acuity Brands
- Applied Materials
- Astron Fiamm
- Dow Chemical
- Dow Corning
- Duksan Hi-Metal
- Holst Centre
- Idemitsu Kosan
- Jilin Optical and Electronic Materials
- Jusung Engineering
- Konica Minolta
- Kurt J. Lesker
- LG Chem
- Mitsubischi Chemical
- Moser Baer
- Rieke Metals
- Sumitomo Chemical
- Sunic Systems
- Universal Display Corporation (UDC)
- WAC Lighting
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