The cellular machine-to-machine opportunity is diverse, dynamic and growing fast. It provides connectivity for a huge variety of different devices and machines including utility meters, vehicles, sensors, point of sales terminals, security devices, consumer electronics devices and many more. The market is also changing in a number of different ways including the business models that operators adopt, the regulations that are key to driving growth, the network technologies used, the ways in which different elements of the value chain are working together and the various developments in different countries and regions of the world.
This report looks at these different developments, providing in-depth country, regional and application-level forecasts underpinned by an in-depth analysis of some of the key drivers and challenges that the market faces: This is of particular importance given the variance in forecasts available. It also provides an analysis of mobile operator approaches to the market, both in terms of some of the most advanced markets as well as a look at developments in key emerging countries such as China and Brazil.
Cellular M2M Connections looks at the developments in the cellular M2M market, providing in-depth country, regional and application-level forecasts underpinned by an in-depth analysis of some of the key drivers and challenges that the market faces: This is of particular importance given the variance in forecasts available.
Key findings include:
- The number of cellular M2M subscriptions nearly doubled between 2010 and 2012 to reach 143.7m. Between 2012 and 2017, we forecast a CAGR of 27.2%, with total subscriptions reaching 478.1m. As a portion of total mobile subscriptions, the increase during this time will be from 2.2% to 5.6%. Airtime revenue is expected to increase from US$4.9bn to $13.0bn during this time, a CAGR of 21.5%.
- Despite attractive growth, it is important to consider some of the key issues driving and challenging the opportunity in different segments and regions. While regulations are the most important driver of the market, there are uncertainties as to the degree and timing of their impact. In some applications, there are alternative technologies and solutions, some of which appear to be winning in some key markets.
- Telematics regulations will be the strongest driver in Brazil, the European Union (EU) and Russia. However, within the EU, different countries have differing levels of enthusiasm, and it is unclear how regulations will be introduced country by country.
- Smart meter regulations are also an important driver in many parts of the world. However, there is also some pushback for a number of reasons, including privacy and security concerns. For instance, while many expected mandatory smart meter installation regulations to be introduced in Brazil, it was recently announced that consumers will be able to opt out.
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Key questions answered include:
- What are the key drivers for wider cellular M2M adoption, both globally and regionally?
- What are some of the key challenges confronting cellular M2M?
- What role do telematics, smart meter regulations, powerline cables and Wi-Fi connectivity play in wider cellular M2M adoption?
- Will 2G, 3G or 4G technologies dominate the cellular M2M market though 2017?
- Which region will become the largest for cellular M2M subscriptions?
The report is targeted at a range of industry participants requiring an overview of the market and an analysis of the different players, including:
- Mobile network operators
- Service providers
- IT managers
About the Author
Jan ten Sythoff
Analyst at large
Now an Analyst At Large for Pyramid Research, Mr. Sythoff used to be Manager of Pyramid’s Research EMEA practice with over 10 years of experience in market forecasting and analysis of competitive strategies. He has authored a number of reports, including an earlier analysis of the global M2M opportunity for operators, as well as an analysis of mobile payments and financial transfers in Africa.
Jan has managed different consulting projects, including a detailed business demographic analysis and mobile adoption projections by segment in select emerging markets as well as supported due-diligence analysis across the Middle East. He also leads Pyramid's research in the area of mobile enterprise services at the global level including broadband applications and M2M.
Prior to joining Pyramid, Jan was a senior analyst with Frost & Sullivan, where he developed reports on EMEA's mobile content market, fixed-mobile convergence trends, wireless LAN and messaging platforms.
Jan has a Postgraduate Diploma in Business Management from the University of Barcelona and graduated from Exeter University with a degree in Economics. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
Section 1: Market overview and background
1.1 Definitions and overview
1.2 Application overview
1.3 Technology trends
1.4 2G, 3G and 4G
1.5 Module pricing trends
Section 2: M2M value chain and MNO positioning
2.2 M2M value chain
2.3 MNOs in the value chain
2.4 Operator approaches in emerging markets
Section 3: Examining cellular M2M market drivers, challenges and forecasts
3.1 M2M growth drivers and challenges
3.1.2 Competing technologies
3.1.3 The impact of mobile data tethering
3.2 Global forecast
3.2.1 Global forecast breakdown by region
3.2.2 Global forecast breakdown by applications
3.3 Country- and regional-level forecasts
3.3.1 North American forecast
3.3.2 Europe forecast
3.3.3 Asia-Pacific forecast
3.3.4 Latin America forecast
3.3.5 Africa & Middle East forecast
3.4 Application-level forecasts
3.4.1 Utilities forecast
3.4.2 Telematics forecast
3.4.3 Fleet management forecast
3.4.4 Consumer electronics forecast
3.4.5 Other applications forecast
Section 4: Case studies
4.5 South Africa
Table of exhibits
Exhibit 1.1: Report segmentation
Exhibit 1.2: Japanese and US operator network discontinuation plans
Exhibit 1.3: NTT DoCoMo M2M DoPa and FOMA subscriptions, 2008-2012
Exhibit 1.4: Cellular M2M subscriptions by network generation, 2008-2017
Exhibit 1.5: Average price, M2M modules, 2010-2017
Exhibit 2.1: M2M value chain
Exhibit 2.2: MNO positioning in the value chain
Exhibit 3.1: Impact of drivers and challenges over time
Exhibit 3.2: M2M subscriptions breakout by connection technology, 2010-2017
Exhibit 3.3: Global cellular subscription and revenue forecast, 2010-2017
Exhibit 3.4: Global cellular M2M subscriptions breakout by region, 2010-2017
Exhibit 3.5: Global cellular M2M subscriptions breakout by application, 2010-2017
Exhibit 3.6: Global cellular M2M revenue breakout by application, 2010-2017
Exhibit 3.7: Country-level cellular M2M subscriptions, 2012 and 2017
Exhibit 3.8: North American cellular M2M subscription and revenue forecast, 2010-2017
Exhibit 3.9: European cellular M2M subscription and revenue forecast, 2010-2017
Exhibit 3.10: Asia-Pacific cellular M2M subscription and revenue forecast, 2010-2017
Exhibit 3.11: Latin American cellular M2M subscription and revenue forecast, 2010-2017
Exhibit 3.12: Africa & Middle East cellular M2M subscription and revenue forecast, 2010-2017
Exhibit 3.13: Cellular M2M subscription and revenue forecast for utilities applications, 2010-2017 ...
Exhibit 3.14: Cellular M2M subscription and revenue forecast for telematics applications, 2010-2017
Exhibit 3.15: Cellular M2M subscription and revenue forecast for fleet management applications, 2010-2017
Exhibit 3.16: Cellular M2M subscription and revenue forecast for consumer electronics applications, 2010-2017
Exhibit 3.17: Cellular M2M subscription and revenue forecast for other applications, 2010-2017
Exhibit 4.1: Brazilian M2M forecast, 2010-2017
Exhibit 4.2: China M2M forecast, 2010-2017
Exhibit 4.3: India M2M forecast, 2010-2017
Exhibit 4.4: Russia M2M forecast, 2010-2017
Exhibit 4.5: South Africa M2M forecast, 2010-2017
As cellular M2M subscriptions climb to over 478 million in 2017, operators will adopt one of four key strategies to improve their position in the market, according to a new report from Pyramid Research.
Cellular M2M Connections: An Analysis of Grow th Drivers, Market Segments and Operator Approaches looks at the developments in the cellular M2M market, providing in-depth country, regional and application-level forecasts underpinned by an in-depth analysis of some of the key drivers and challenges that the market faces: This is of particular importance given the variance in forecasts available.
"Strategy 1 is where mobile operators simply sell airtime wholesale to MVNOs and resellers and have little or no additional involvement," says Pyramid Research Analyst at Large, Jan ten Sythoff. Several years ago this was the principal way in which operators addressed the M2M opportunity, seeing it as a niche market too small to invest in and a low priority. In Strategy 2, operators have their own M2M platform, providing not only the network access, but they are also able to offer important connectivity capabilities. Strategy 3 involves MNOs becoming the central point of contact. In this case, the MNO can take different steps to enhance its position in the value chain, while still depending heavily on partnerships. The final strategy operators can consider is a complete end-to-end solution. "This requires that they gain strong vertical industry expertise and so are able to manage complete projects from sale, consulting, device design and manufacture, application development, integration and service management," he explains.
- China Mobile
- China Unicom
- Jasper Wireless
- Pacific Controls
- Porto Seguro
- Sierra Wireless
- Tesa Telecom