Part 2 of this week’s Q&A with Berg Insights discusses the biggest challenges facing the mHealth market, and looks at the different approaches car manufacturers are taking in the development of autonomous vehicles.
Click here for Part 1.
Q. What are the biggest challenges facing the mHealth market today? What can market participants do to overcome these challenges?
The adoption of remote patient monitoring solutions is driven by a wide range of incentives, related to everything from demographics and technology development to new advancements in medical treatment. However, there are a number of barriers, including resistance to change among healthcare organizations and clinicians, misaligned incentive structures and the financing of wireless solutions by what is at large an underfunded healthcare sector. Several catalysts are nevertheless speeding up the rate of adoption – in particular incentives from payers and insurance companies, national health systems that support remote monitoring and a shift to performance-based payment models.
The healthcare industry is in many ways a conservative and slowly changing industry. It is in many cases advantageous that new treatment methods and technologies are not widely adopted before there is substantial clinical evidence to back up their efficacy. However, the institutional reluctance to adopt innovation can also prevent cost-effective solutions from being taken into use.
The transparency of data implied by remote monitoring solutions where every measurement value is stored on a server should not be overlooked either. Clinicians can feel uncomfortable using these new technologies due to that they provide increased transparency into their clinical evaluations and decision-making on treatment plans.
Q. How will the market for autonomous cars evolve in the coming 15 years?
There are two approaches to the development of autonomous cars – the evolutionary and the revolutionary. Most of the incumbent car manufacturers are pursuing an evolutionary approach which relies on step-by-step developments. The first step for the evolutionary pathway is to make SAE Level 3 cars available in 2020.
This initial system is likely to only feature autonomously without ever requesting the driver to intervene but initially only on specific freeways and thus the driver will have to take over control when the car is exiting the freeway.
The total number of new registrations of autonomous (SAE Level 3 and 4) cars is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 62 percent from 0.2 million units in 2020 to reach 24 million units in 2030. The active installed base of autonomous cars is forecasted to have reached about 71 million at the end of the forecast period. SAE Level 3 and 4 cars will constitute about 16.5 million and 7.8 million of the cars sold in 2030. However, Level 4 sales are expected to overtake Level 3 in the years following 2030. Cars with Level 5 capability are not expected to emerge before 2030 and potentially much later.
Q. What other industry do you find the most interesting outside of the ones you cover?
It would be exciting to do some new market research projects on personal robotics. A number of product categories from automatic vacuum cleaners and robotic mowers to robotic toys and UAVs are available already today from multiple vendors.
The wearable device market has emerged as one of the first segments of the IoT to see widespread adoption. Growing budget pressures and an increasing demand for high quality and personalized healthcare services are encouraging the use of mobile technologies. Autonomous vehicles will soon follow, with manufacturers racing to be the first to bring a vehicle to the consumer market. Some analysts are forecasting 71 million self-driving cars to be on our road by 2030.
We’d like to take this opportunity to thank Johan for sharing his expertise on the IoT and M2M markets with us.
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A short bio about the interviewee:
Johan Fagerberg is co-founder of Berg Insight and an experienced analyst with a Master’s degree in Electrical Engineering from Chalmers University of Technology. He has during the past 20 years published numerous articles and reports about the latest and most relevant M2M/IoT topics.