ACTIVE PRIVATE EQUITY REAL ESTATE STRATEGY
With the dramatic downturn in today′s U.S. real estate market, individual and institutional real estate investors need a resource for meeting the challenges that lie ahead and seizing opportunities as they arise.
Written by David Lynn with expert contributions from ING Clarion colleagues Tim Wang, Matson Holbrook, Bohdy Hedgcock, Jeff Organisciak, Alison Sauer, and Yusheng Hao, Active Private Equity Real Estate Strategy offers a collection of abridged market analyses, forecasts, and strategy papers developed in 2007 and 2008 from the ING Clarion Partners′ Research & Investment Strategy (RIS) Group.
This practical resource is divided into two comprehensive parts. Part One offers an overview of real estate markets, forecasts, and trends. Here you will find a summary of the national and major urban area markets and an analysis of each of the major real estate property types. In addition, this section contains illustrative examples of market analysis and forecasting that may set the stage for more detailed strategy development later on. The analysis also includes an early simulation of the potential effects of a recession on the commercial real estate industry.
Part Two presents examples of specific active strategies in private equity real estate investing. Each of these studies was developed to illustrate how an institutional investment manager may identify and analyze real estate investment opportunities under certain market conditions. The studies highlight key areas including multifamily, hotel, land, and industrial investment, and three niche plays: derivatives, senior housing, and infrastructure. The book also includes an example of the application of Modern Portfolio Theory to a hypothetical core real estate portfolio.
Active Private Equity Real Estate Strategy is an informative guide to the development of private equity investment strategies.
About the Authors xvii
PART ONE Market Analysis and Forecasts 1
CHAPTER 1 Overview of the U.S. Real Estate Market 3Tim Wang and David Lynn
CHAPTER 2 Forecasting the U.S. Market 19David Lynn
CHAPTER 3 Recession Simulation and Its Effects on Real Estate 25Tim Wang, Alison Sauer, and David Lynn
CHAPTER 4 Subprime Fallout: The Impact on Commercial Real Estate 41Tim Wang and David Lynn
CHAPTER 5 Capital Markets: Dramatic Shifts and Opportunities 47David Lynn and Tim Wang
CHAPTER 6 The Bid–Ask Problem and Game Theory 53Jeff Organisciak, Tim Wang, and David Lynn
PART TWO Active Strategies 67
CHAPTER 7 Residential Land Investment 69Bohdy Hedgcock and David Lynn
CHAPTER 8 The U.S. Hotel Market and Strategy 103Tim Wang, Matson Holbrook, and David Lynn
CHAPTER 9 Global Gateway Industrial Market Investment 125Bohdy Hedgcock and David Lynn
CHAPTER 10 The Opportunity in Senior Housing 159Tim Wang and David Lynn
CHAPTER 11 Active Portfolio Management Using Modern Portfolio Theory 187David Lynn and Yusheng Hao
CHAPTER 12 Derivatives in Private Equity Real Estate 217Jeff Organisciak, Tim Wang, and David Lynn
CHAPTER 13 Opportunities in Infrastructure Investment 239David Lynn and Matson Holbrook
APPENDIX A Typical Land Development Pro Forma Analysis Three Scenarios 247
APPENDIX B U.S. Hotel Chain Scales 253
APPENDIX C Modern Portfolio Theory in Real Estate Portfolio Analytics 257
APPENDIX D Commercial Real Estate Indexes 259
APPENDIX E Example NPI Forecast Methodology 263
Selected Bibliography 265