Rhodium Market Outlook

  • ID: 1246813
  • Report
  • Region: Global
  • 100 Pages
  • CPM Group
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Rhodium Market Outlook

A comprehensive study of the global rhodium market including projections through 2018 of rhodium supply by mine, demand by end-use, and prices.

The price of rhodium rose to average $9,493 in June 2008. By December, the price of rhodium averaged $1,050, down 89% from its June peak. Producers, consumers, refiners, and investors have been whipsawed by volatile rhodium prices and market conditions. This report is designed to provide a detailed explanation of the supply and demand forces driving rhodium prices as well as fundamental, statistically grounded projections of what may happen to rhodium prices over the next ten years.

This report addresses in detail the following specific fundamentals and issues supportive of this reports ten-year rhodium price outlook:

- Mining industry in South Africa
- Significance of mining in the rhodium rich Upper Group 2 (UG2) ore body
- South African PGM cash costs
- Market implications of the South African rand and U.S. dollar exchange rate
- Effect of the global recession on South African mining
- Global rhodium mine production
- Effect of the global economic slowdown on secondary recovery of rhodium
- Effect of auto scrappage schemes and other incentives
- Stricter emissions standards and median age
- Thrifting of metal
- Typical flow of scrapped vehicles in developed countries
- Rhodium fabrication demand
- Rhodium demand in automotive catalysts
- Global vehicle sales
- Trends in the US, BRIC, European, and Japanese auto markets
- Global emissions standards by major market
- Other end-uses
- Potential threats to the use of rhodium in auto catalysts, such as nano technology and alternatives to the traditional internal combustion engine
- Investment demand and consumer inventories
- High and low case alternate scenarios
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Chart: The Monthly Average Metals Week New York Dealer Price of Rhodium

PRICE FORECAST

Base Case Scenari

Supply Forecasting Methodology and Assumption…

Demand Forecasting Methodology and Assumption
Chart: Base Case: Rhodium Supply and Demand

Fundamentals Supportive of Price Outlook
Chart: Base Case: Real and Nominal Rhodium Prices
Chart: Base Case: Rhodium Surplus and Deficit
Table: Base Case: World Rhodium Supply and Demand Balance
Table: Base Case: Rhodium Supply, Demand, and Price

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

The Current Economic Cycle and Longer-Term Economic Trends
Chart: Relation Between Global Vehicle Sales and Global Gross Domestic Product
Chart: U.S. Unemployment Rate
Chart: OECD Unemployment Rate
Chart: U.S. Personal Savings as Percentage of Disposable Personal Income
Chart: Bank Credit of All U.S. Commercial Banks
Chart: Real Gross Domestic Product projected through 2
Chart: Total Loans and Leases - U.S. Commercial Banks
Chart: Vehicles Per Thousand People as of 2

SUPPLY

Rhodium Supply Overview
Chart: Total Rhodium Supply (1976 — 2018p)
Map: World Rhodium Mine Production

Focus on Rhodium Supply in South Africa…
Mining in South Africa
Table: Planned Capacity Expansion at Eskom (2009 — 2017)
Chart: Number of Fatalities in South African Mining Industry
Mining the Upper Group 2 (UG2) Ore Body
Table: Average Grades of Precious Metals in the Merensky, UG2, and Platreef Ores of South Africa
Chart: South African PGM Production Indexed to
Table: Percentage of Tonnes Mined from UG2 Reef
South African PGM Cash Costs
Chart: Average PGM Cash Costs and PGM Prices, Projected Through 2
Chart: Approximate South African PGM Cash Cost Break Down
South African Rand and U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate
Chart: Exchange Rate: South African Rand/ U.S. Dollar
Effect of Recession on South African Mining
Table: Typical Time Line for Platinum Group Metal Projects
Mine Production
Table: South African Rhodium Mine Production, Projected Through 2

Focus on Rhodium Supply in Russia
Table: Russia Norilsk: Estimated Composition of Platinum Group Metals Ores
Table: Russian Rhodium Production and Exports, Projected Through 2
Mining in Russia

Focus on Rhodium Supply in

Canad

SECONDARY SUPPLY

Focus on Rhodium Secondary Supply…
Effect of Global Economic Slowdown on Secondary Recovery of Rhodium
Chart: Rhodium Secondary Supply and Price
The Effect of Scrappage Schemes and Other Incentives
Table: Vehicle Scrappage Schemes in Europe and the United States
Stricter Emissions Standards and Median Age
Thrifting of the Metal in Event of Record High Price
Typical Flow of Scrapped Vehicles in Developed Countries

DEMAND

Rhodium Fabrication Demand Overvie
Chart: Annual Rhodium Demand (1976 — 2018p)
Chart: World Rhodium Use Per Capita

Rhodium Demand in Automotive Catalysts
Rhodium: An Integral Component of Auto Catalysts
Chart: Rhodium Demand in Auto Catalysts (1976 — 2018p)
Vehicle Sales
Chart: Global Vehicle Sales (1999 — 2018p)
Chart: Vehicle Sales in N. America, Europe, & Japan (1999 — 2018p)
Chart: Vehicle Sales in BRICs (1999 — 2018p)
Table: Global Vehicle Sales (1999 — 2018p)

Trends in the US Auto Marke…
Global Leader No More
Chart: Vehicle Sales in the United States (1999 — 2018p)
Chart: Monthly Vehicle Sales in the United States
Trending Toward Smaller Vehicles
Hybrid Vehicles
Chart: Hybrid Vehicle Sales (2004 — 2018p)
Chart: Market Share of Hybrid Vehicle (2004 — 2018p)

Trends in the BRIC Auto Marke
China
Chart: Vehicle Sales in China (1999 — 2018p)
Chart: Monthly Vehicle Sales in China
Rising Demand for Large Cars
Chart: Annual SUV sales in China
Chart: Market Share of SUVs in Chinese Auto Market
Brazil
Chart: Vehicle Sales in Brazil (1999 — 2018p)
Flex Fuel Vehicles
Chart: Flex Fuel Vehicle Sales in Brazil
India
Chart: Vehicle Sales in India (1999 — 2018p)
Tata Nano
Russia
Chart: Vehicle Sales in Russia (1999 — 2018p)

Trends in the European Auto Marke…
Chart: Vehicle Sales in Europe (1999 — 2018p)
Central & East European Countries
Scrappage Schemes
Smaller Engine Sizes
Chart: Average Engine Size of Newly Registered Vehicle in Europe

Trends in the Japanese Auto Market
Chart: Vehicle Sales in Japan (1999 — 2018p)

Gasoline—Diesel Engine

Global Emissions Standards by Major Market..
Chart: Percentage Decline in Nox Emissions from Previous Standards
Chart: European Gasoline Passenger Vehicle Emissions Standards
Table: Implementation of Emission Standards in Major Vehicle Markets

Other End-Uses
Chart: Rhodium Demand in Electronics (1976 — 2018p)
Chart: Rhodium Demand in Glass (1976 — 2018p)
Chart: Rhodium Demand in Chemical Catalysts (1976 — 2018p)
Rhodium Demand in Other Smaller Applications

Potential Threats to Rhodium Deman
Nano Technology
Electric Vehicles
Other Threats

Investment Demand & Consumer

Inventory

PRICE FORECASTS

Alternate Scenarios

High Case Scenario
Fundamentals Supportive of Price Outlook
Chart: High Case: Real and Nominal Rhodium Prices
Chart: High Case: Rhodium Supply and Demand
Chart: High Case: Rhodium Surplus and Deficit
Table: High Case: World Rhodium Supply and Demand Balance
Table: High Case: Rhodium Supply, Demand, and Price

Low Case Scenario
Fundamentals Supportive of Price Outlook
Chart: Low Case: Real and Nominal Rhodium Prices
Chart: Low Case: Rhodium Supply and Demand
Chart: Low Case: Rhodium Surplus and Deficit
Table: Low Case: World Rhodium Supply and Demand Balance
Table: Low Case: Rhodium Supply, Demand, and Price
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