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2010 Hard Disk Drive Capital Equipment and Technology Report

  • ID: 1279000
  • Report
  • June 2010
  • Region: Global
  • 189 Pages
  • Coughlin Associates
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The 2010 Hard Disk Drive Capital Equipment and Technology Report provides 189 pages of in-depth analysis of technology developments and capital equipment spending to sustain the growth and development of the hard disk drive industry. 25 tables and 109 figures give analysis and projections.

Some highlights from the report:

- We assume 225% growth in HDD capital equipment spending from 2010 to 2015 driven by three factors: unit demand doubling between 2010 and 2015, new technology introductions such as HAMR and patterned media and updating facilities and processes.

- Total industry spending on capital equipment in 2010 is expected to be about $3.0 B with 67% of this spent on process equipment, 26% on production test and 7% on metrology.

- In 2010 Head, media and drive capital equipment spending is estimated at 32%, 49% and 19% respectively

- Average HDD capital equipment spending per year between 2007 and 2015 is estimated at about 8.1% of HDD industry revenue, with this percentage increasing in the last years of this period.

- Strong demand for HDDs in 2010 and 2011 combined with restrained manufacturing capacity will help keep inventories low and average HDD prices and revenues high, assisting in capital equipment investments.

- Continued technology development will make 10 TB 3.5-inch HDDs, 5 TB 2.5-inch HDDs and 1 TB 1.8-inch HDDs possible by 2015.

- Areal density growth may slow from 40-50% annually to a lower rate during part of the projection period while the HDD industry makes a major technology transition to heat assisted recording, patterned media or shingle writing.
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INTRODUCTION
THE AUTHORS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
SPIN TORQUE TRANSFER MRAM

MARKET AND INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
MARKET OVERVIEW
Component Shortages in 2010 and 2011?
Disk and Head Projections
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Projections by Application, Form Factor and Substrate
Quarterly Production Variations
Drive and Component Market Shares

TECHNOLOGY ISSUES AND DIRECTIONS
HDD TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT
INTRODUCTION OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES
COMPONENT TECHNOLOGY
Lithography
Magnetic Heads
Magnetic Media
Changes in Drive Bit Aspect Ratio
DISK DRIVE ASSEMBLY
Servo Track Writing
DISK DRIVE TESTING
DISK DRIVE COMPONENT AND SUBSYSTEM TESTING

MARKET SEGMENTS AND TOP LEVEL GROWTH PROJECTIONS
GEOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN
2010 CAPITAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING
TOP-LEVEL HEAD, DISK AND DRIVE FORECASTS

PRODUCTION TEST AND METROLOGY FORECASTS

PRODUCTION AND PROCESS EQUIPMENT MARKET
PROCESS CONTROL AND YIELDS
DISK DRIVE PROCESSES
MAGNETIC HEAD ASSEMBLY
Wafer Fabrication
Key Features:
Slider Fabrication
HGA Assembly
Head Stack Assembly
MAGNETIC MEDIA MANUFACTURING
Media Substrate Manufacturing
Substrate Cleaning
Disk Manufacturing
Disk Lubrication
Test and Certification
CLEANING AND CONTAMINATION CONTROL

PRODUCTION / PROCESS EQUIPMENT FORECASTS

MANUFACTURER'S PROFILES TEST & METROLOGY EQUIPMENT
SUPPLIERS

MANUFACTURER’S PROFILES PRODUCTION / PROCESS EQUIPMENT
SUPPLIERS

TABLE PAGE
TABLE 2-1. HDD COMPANY REVENUE AND INDUSTRY CAPITAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING ESTIMATES (2007 TO 2015).
TABLE 3-1. AVERAGE DISK AND HEAD PER DRIVE ESTIMATES
TABLE 3-2. HDD QUARTERLY SHIPMENT CHANGES (2003-2007).
TABLE 3-3. HDD QUARTERLY SHIPMENT CHANGES (2003-2009).
TABLE 3-4. 2009 MARKET SHARE PERCENTAGE BY APPLICATION.
TABLE 3-5. 2007 MARKET SHARE PERCENTAGE BY HDD FORM FACTOR
TABLE 5-1. ASSIGNMENT OF EQUIPMENT INTO CATEGORIES
TABLE 5-2. HDD COMPANY REVENUE AND INDUSTRY CAPITAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING ESTIMATES (2007 TO 2015).
TABLE 5-3. HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED EQUIPMENT SPENDING GROWTH AND SPENDING PER DRIVE (PROD. TEST, PROCESS AND METROLOGY ARE IN $M, # DRIVES IN MILLIONS AND LAST COLUMN IS $/DRIVE)
TABLE 6-1. INDEPENDENT TEST AND METROLOGY EQUIPMENT COMPANIES AND CATEGORIES.
TABLE 6-2. PRODUCTION TEST EQUIPMENT AVERAGE UNIT PRICE IN 2010
TABLE 6-3. MEDIA SERVO WRITER ESTIMATES
TABLE 6-4. BURN-IN SLOT ESTIMATES
TABLE 6-5. CERTIFIER/BURNISHER STATION ESTIMATES
TABLE 6-6. PRODUCTION TEST REVENUE ESTIMATES ($M)
TABLE 6-7. METROLOGY EQUIPMENT PRICE RANGES AND AVERAGE PRICES.
TABLE 6-8. METROLOGY EQUIPMENT REVENUE FORECAST ($M)
TABLE 7-1. PRODUCTION/PROCESS EQUIPMENT COMPANY SUMMARY BY DRIVE AND COMPONENTS
TABLE 7-2. PRODUCTION/PROCESS EQUIPMENT SUMMARY FOR MAGNETIC HEAD MANUFACTURING
TABLE 7-3. GMR HEAD PROCESS AND EQUIPMENT VENDORS
TABLE 7-4. GMR HEAD PROCESS MEASUREMENTS
TABLE 7-5. DISK MEASUREMENT AND TEST EQUIPMENT VENDORS
TABLE 7-6. DISK AND DISK COMPONENT PRODUCTION AND PROCESS EQUIPMENT VENDORS AND THEIR MARKET SEGMENTS
TABLE 8-1. HEAD AND DISK PROCESS AND PRODUCTION AND PROCESS EQUIPMENT AVERAGE PRICES
TABLE 8-2. HEAD, DISK AND DISK DRIVE PROCESS AND PRODUCTION EQUIPMENT REVENUE PROJECTIONS

FIGURE PAGE
FIGURE 2-1. HISTORY AND PROJECTIONS FOR HDD UNIT GROWTH TO 2015 PER MARKET SEGMENT...
FIGURE 2-2. BANDED HDD UNIT VOLUME ESTIMATES
FIGURE 2-3. AVERAGE DRIVE PRICE TREND FOR SEAGATE, WESTERN DIGITAL AND HGST (Q4 ’98 TO Q1 ’10)..
FIGURE 2-4. WW DISK PRODUCTION CAPACITY ESTIMATES VS DEMAND ESTIMATES (2000 THROUGH 2010)
FIGURE 2-5. HDD QUARTERLY PUBLIC TECHNOLOGY DEMONSTRATIONS AND PRODUCT ANNOUNCEMENTS
FIGURE 2-6. COMPARISON OF PRODUCT ANNOUNCEMENT TRENDS VS. AREAL DENSITY GROWTH RATES.
FIGURE 2-7. HDD AREAL DENSITY GROWTH AND PROJECTIONS
FIGURE 2-8. SINGLE-SIDED DISK STORAGE CAPACITY FORM FACTOR PROJECTIONS
FIGURE 2-9. HDD TECHNOLOGY INTRODUCTION WITH UNIT VOLUME GROWTH
FIGURE 2-10. HDD COMPONENT TESTING/METROLOGY ROADMAP VS. AREAL DENSITY.
FIGURE 2-11. CAPITAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING VS. NUMBER OF HARD DISK DRIVES TRENDS.
FIGURE 2-12. 2010 CAPITAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING BY TYPE OF EQUIPMENT (TOTAL SPENDING IN 2010 ~$3.0 B)
FIGURE 2-13. CAPITAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING ESTIMATES FROM 1999 THROUGH 2015.
FIGURE 2-14. 2010 CAPITAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING FOR HEADS MEDIA AND DRIVE
FIGURE 2-15. CAPITAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING TRENDS BY ALL TRACKED CATEGORIES. ...
FIGURE 2-16. MOMEMTUM SPIN TRANSFER
FIGURE 2-17. STT-RAM VS CONVENTIONAL MRAM
FIGURE 3-1. WW DISK CAPACITY SHIPMENT ESTIMATES
FIGURE 3-2. PROJECTIONS FOR HDD CAPACITIES AT VARIOUS FORM FACTORS...
FIGURE 3-3. COMPARISON OF FORMAT EFFICIENCY WITH MORE ECC CODING FOR 512 AND 4,096 BYTE SECTORS..
FIGURE 3-4. AREAL DENSITY GROWTH OF HDDS /FLASH MEMORY
FIGURE 3-5. WW DISK PRODUCTION CAPACITY VS. DEMAND ESTIMATES (2000 THROUGH 2010)
FIGURE 3-6. ESTIMATES OF DRIVE, HEADS AND DISKS TO 2015
FIGURE 3-7. HISTORY AND PROJECTIONS FOR HDD UNIT GROWTH TO 2015 PER MARKET SEGMENT.
FIGURE 3-8. HISTORY AND PROJECTIONS FOR HDD UNIT GROWTH TO 2015 PER DRIVE FORM FACTOR.
FIGURE 3-9. BANDED HDD VOLUME PROJECTIONS TO 2015
FIGURE 3-10. HDD SHIPMENT QUARTERLY SEASONALITY (UNITS IN MILLIONS)..
FIGURE 3-11. HDD QUARTERLY SHIPMENTS, 2006-2 HISTORICAL, 2010-2015 PROJECTIONS)...
FIGURE 3-12. HEAD QUARTERLY SHIPMENTS, 2006-2 HISTORICAL, 2010-2015 PROJECTIONS).
FIGURE 3-13. DISK QUARTERLY SHIPMENTS. 2006-2 HISTORICAL, 2010-2015 PROJECTIONS)...
FIGURE 3-14. SUBSTRATE QUARTERLY DEMAND (2006-2 HISTORICAL, 2010-2015 PROJECTIONS).
FIGURE 3-15. 2009 TOTAL HDD MARKET SHARE (BY UNITS)
FIGURE 3-16. 2009 TOTAL DISK PRODUCTION UNIT SHARE
FIGURE 3-17. 2009 TOTAL HEAD PRODUCTION UNIT SHARE
FIGURE 3-18. AVERAGE DRIVE PRICE TREND FOR SEAGATE, WESTERN DIGITAL AND HGST (Q4 ’98 TO Q1 ’10)...
FIGURE 3-19. AVERAGE %/GB FOR HDDS AND FLASH MEMORY
FIGURE 3-20. ENTERPRISE HDD ACCESS/SEEK TIME PERFORMANCE INCREASES
FIGURE 3-21. MAGNETIC HARD DISK DRIVE INTERNAL DATA RATE
FIGURE 3-22. INDUSTRY HDD MTBF SPECIFICATIONS
FIGURE 3-23. MARKET HGA PRICING TRENDS VS. TECHNOLOGY
FIGURE 3-24. MARKET DISK PRICING TRENDS VS. TECHNOLOGY
FIGURE 4-1. HDD AREAL DENSITY GROWTH AND PROJECTIONS
FIGURE 4-2. HDD QUARTERLY PUBLIC TECHNOLOGY DEMONSTRATIONS DEMONSTRATIONS AND PRODUCT ANNOUNCEM
FIGURE 4-3. COMPARISON OF PRODUCT ANNOUNCEMENT TRENDS VS. AREAL DENSITY GROWTH RATES...
FIGURE 4-4. STORAGE CAPACITY VS. AREAL DENSITY AND FORM FACTOR
FIGURE 4-5. HDD TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP WITH UNIT VOLUME GROWTH
FIGURE 4-6. HDD TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP WITH AREAL DENSITY GROWTH
FIGURE 4-7. HDD COMPONENT TESTING/METROLOGY ROADMAP VS. AREAL DENSITY.
FIGURE 4-8. LITHOGRAPHIC ROADMAP SHOWING HDD HEAD AND PBM TRENDS VS. ITRS SEMICONDUCTOR REQUIREMENTS..
FIGURE 4-9. BLOCK CO-POLYMER SELF ASSEMBLY
FIGURE 4-10. NANOIMPRINTING MASTER/WORKING COPY PRODUCTION PROCESS
FIGURE 4-11. TRENDS IN HEAD WAFER DIAMETERS
FIGURE 4-12. HDD SPACING AND AREAL DENSITY RELATIONSHIP
FIGURE 4-13. HEAT ASSISTED MAGNETIC RECORDING SCHEMATIC
FIGURE 4-14. HEAT ASSISTED MAGNETIC RECORDING HEAD PROCESS PROCESS CHANGES
FIGURE 4-15. SELF-ALIGNING DOUBLE PATTERN LITHOGRAPHY
FIGURE 4-16. SHINGLE WRITE RECORDING
FIGURE 4-17. INCREASING COMPLEXITY OF MAGNETIC RECORDING MEDIA (1)..
FIGURE 4-18. VISUALIZATION OF PERPENDICULAR RECORDING (SOURCE: SEAGATE)...
FIGURE 4-19. DTR/PBM MEDIA PRODUCTION PROCESS (INTEVAC)
FIGURE 4-20. DISK MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION WORKFLOW CHANGES WITH DTR AND PBM
FIGURE 4-21. INTEVAC PATTERNED MEDIA WORKFLOW (2009)
FIGURE 4-22. AREAL DENSITY AND DISK COERCIVITY EVOLUTION
FIGURE 4-23. TRENDS IN RECORDED BIT LENGTH
FIGURE 4-24. RELATIONSHIP OF TRACK WIDTH TO BIT LENGTH
FIGURE 4-25. DEVELOPMENT OF BAR WITH TIME
FIGURE 4-26. CHANGES IN HDD ASSEMBLY WORKFLOW
FIGURE 4-27. PATTERNED MEDIA SERVO PATTERNS
FIGURE 4-28. XYRATEX OPTIMUS DRIVE PROCESSING SYSTEM
FIGURE 4-29. ISI ROW BAR QUASI-STATIC TESTER
FIGURE 4-30. ISI HGA/HSA/HDA QUASI-STATIC TESTER
FIGURE 4-31. VEECO ICON DIMENSION AFM TOOLS
FIGURE 4-32. FLYING ON PATTERNED MEDIA...
FIGURE 4-33. GUZIK DTR 3000 READ WRITE SYSTEM
FIGURE 4-34. TRENDS IN MAXIMUM ALLOWABLE DEFECT SIZE
FIGURE 4-35. KLA-TENCOR CANDELA 6120 OPTICAL INSPECTION TOOL
FIGURE 5-1. ESTIMATED 2010 HDD COMPANY EQUIPMENT SPENDING (TOTAL SPENDING ~$2.2 B)
FIGURE 5-2. ESTIMATED 2010 DISK/SUBSTRATE EQUIPMENT SPENDING (TOTAL SPENDING ~$1,259 M)
FIGURE 5-3. ESTIMATED 2010 DISK/SUBSTRATE EQUIPMENT SPENDING BY INDEPENDENT DISK SUPPLIERS (TOTAL SPENDING ~$392 M)
FIGURE 5-4. BREAKDOWN OF 2010 EQUIPMENT SPENDING BETWEEN INDEPENDENT AND CAPTIVE DISK OPERATIONS
FIGURE 5-5. ESTIMATED 2010 HEAD EQUIPMENT SPENDING (TOTAL SPENDING ~$954 M)
FIGURE 5-6. 2010 ESTIMATED EQUIPMENT SPENDING BETWEEN INDEPENDENT HEAD AND COMPONENT SUPPLIERS AND CAPTIVE HEAD OPERATIONS
FIGURE 5-7. 2010 ESTIMATED WAFER/HEAD EQUIPMENT SPENDING (TOTAL SPENDING ~$954 M)
FIGURE 5-8. 2010 ESTIMATED DISK/SUBSTRATE EQUIPMENT SPENDING (TOTAL SPENDING ~$1,480 M)
FIGURE 5-9. 2010 ESTIMATED EQUIPMENT SPENDING FOR DRIVES (TOTAL SPENDING ~$582 M)
FIGURE 5-10. CAPITAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING ON HEADS, MEDIA AND DRIVES
FIGURE 5-11. CAPITAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING ON PRODUCTION, PRODUCTION TEST AND METROLOGY EQUIPMENT
FIGURE 5-12. EQUIPMENT SPENDING VS. # OF HDDS TREND
FIGURE 5-13. TRENDS FOR EQUIPMENT SPENDING FOR PRODUCTION/PROCESS, PRODUCTION TEST AND METROLOGY
FIGURE 6-1. REVENUE PROJECTIONS FOR PRODUCTION TEST EQUPMENT 2009-2015...
FIGURE 6-2. REVENUE PROJECTIONS FOR METROLOGY EQUIPMENT 2009-2015..
FIGURE 7-1. SLIDER PROCESS FLOW.
FIGURE 7-2. VEECO HEAD PROCESSING EQUIPMENT (NEXUS)
FIGURE 7-3. PLASMA THERM HEAD PROCESSING EQUIPMENT (VERSALOCK).
FIGURE 7-4. NIKON DEEP UV PHOTOLITHOGRAPHY TOOL.
FIGURE 7-5. INTEVAC 200 LEAN MEDIA SPUTTERING SYSTEM.
FIGURE 7-6. SINGLE SIDED PATTERNED MEDIA ETCH STATION (INTEVAC 2009)
FIGURE 7-7. ANELVA C-3050 SPUTTERING SYSTEM
FIGURE 7-8. ANELVA PROTOTYPE PATTERNED MEDIA PROCESS
FIGURE 7-9. INTEVAC DLS-100 GRAVITY LUBE COATER
FIGURE 7-10. INTEVAC ACCULUBER VAPOR LUBE COATER.
FIGURE 7-11. ISO CLEANLINESS EXPECTATIONS FOR HDD/MEDIA/HEAD MANUFACTURING ENVIRONMENTS (SOURCE: LIGHTHOUSE SOLUTIONS)
FIGURE 7-12. HDD MANUFACTURING LIQUID FILTRATION FILTER ROADMAP (PALL 2010)
FIGURE 7-13. PRODUCT RISK FACTOR VS. FREQUENCY OF CONTAMINATION MONITORING
FIGURE 7-14. HITACHI HIGH TECH AUTOMATED DISK CLEANING SYSTEM
FIGURE 8-1. HEAD, DISK AND DRIVE PROCESS/PRODUCTION EQUIPMENT REVENUE PROJECTIONS
FIGURE 8-2. HEAD CAPITAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING
FIGURE 8-3. DISK CAPITAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING
FIGURE 8-4. BREAK DOWN OF DRIVE CAPITAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING
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Tom Coughlin, President, Coughlin Enterprises: Tom Coughlin is a well known analyst, speaker and consultant in the digital storage and applications industry. He has over 50 publications and six patents to his credit and publishes regular reports on digital storage technology and applications, including this report. Tom is active with IDEMA, the IEEE Magnetics Society, IEEE CE Society, SNIA, and other professional organizations. Tom has been active with Region 6 IEEE including chairman of the 2011 IEEE Sections Congress. He is the founder and organizer of the Annual Storage Visions Conference, a partner to the annual Consumer Electronics Show as well as the Creative Storage Conference. Coughlin Associates provides market and technology analysis as well as Data Storage Technical Consulting services.

Ed Grochowski, Computer Storage Consultant: Ed Grochowski is a well known speaker on storage technology. He has a 50-year career association with
the computer industry, 41 of which were with IBM. Ed worked at the IBM Almaden Research Center where his interests included hard disk drive and
component evolutionary trends. Ed’s charts are frequently used to describe HDD and storage progress by numerous industry presenters at many conferences. He holds nine patents and has authored and presented numerous articles on HDD and component technology. Ed served as Executive Director of DISKCON and the Symposium series for many years. He was a long time coordinator of the 4Kbyte sector standards committee, and is a member of the IEEE.
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