This book has been written with the intention to fill two big gaps in the reliability and risk literature: the risk-based reliability analysis as a powerful alternative to the traditional reliability analysis and the generic principles for reducing technical risk.
An important theme in the book is the generic principles and techniques for reducing technical risk. These have been classified into three major categories: preventive (reducing the likelihood of failure), protective (reducing the consequences from failure) and dual (reducing both, the likelihood and the consequences from failure). Many of these principles (for example: avoiding clustering of events, deliberately introducing weak links, reducing sensitivity, introducing changes with opposite sign, etc.) are discussed in the reliability literature for the first time.
Significant space has been allocated to component reliability. In the last chapter of the book, several applications are discussed of a powerful equation which constitutes the core of a new theory of locally initiated component failure by flaws whose number is a random variable.
- Offers a shift in the existing paradigm for conducting reliability analyses
- Covers risk-based reliability analysis and generic principles for reducing risk
- Provides a new measure of risk based on the distribution of the potential losses from failure as well as the basic principles for risk-based design
- Incorporates fast algorithms for system reliability analysis and discrete-event simulators
- Includes the probability of failure of a structure with complex shape expressed with a simple equation
Chapter 1: RISK-BASED RELIABILITY ANALYSIS: A POWERFUL ALTERNATIVE TO THE TRADITIONAL RELIABILITY ANALYSIS
Chapter 2: BASIC RELIABILITY CONCEPTS AND CONVENTIONS USED FOR DETERMINING THE LOSSES FROM FAILURES
Chapter 3: METHODS FOR ANALYSIS OF COMPLEX RELIABILITY NETWORKS
Chapter 4: PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT AND RISK MANAGEMENT
Chapter 5: POTENTIAL LOSS FROM FAILURE FOR NON-REPAIRABLE COMPONENTS AND SYSTEMS WITH MULTIPLE FAILURE MODES
Chapter 6: LOSSES FROM FAILURES FOR REPAIRABLE SYSTEMS WITH COMPONENTS LOGICALLY ARRANGED IN SERIES
Chapter 7: RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF COMPLEX REPAIRABLE SYSTEMS BASED ON CONSTRUCTING THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE POTENTIAL LOSSES
Chapter 8: RELIABILITY VALUE ANALYSIS FOR COMPLEX SYSTEMS
Chapter 9: RELIABILITY ALLOCATION BASED ON MINIMISING THE TOTAL COST
Chapter 10: GENERIC APPROACHES TO REDUCING THE LIKELIHOOD OF CRITICAL FAILURES
Chapter 11: SPECIFIC PRINCIPLES FOR REDUCING THE LIKELIHOOD OF FAILURES
Chapter 12: REDUCING THE RISK OF FAILURE BY REDUCING THE NEGATIVE IMPACT FROM THE VARIABILITY OF DESIGN PARAMETERS
Chapter 13: GENERIC SOLUTIONS FOR REDUCING THE LIKELIHOOD OF OVERSTRESS AND WEAROUT FAILURES
Chapter 14: REDUCING THE RISK OF FAILURE BY REMOVING LATENT FAULTS, AND AVOIDING COMMON CAUSE FAILURES
Chapter 15: CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS AND GENERIC PRINCIPLES FOR REDUCING THE CONSEQUENCES FROM FAILURES
Chapter 16: LOCALLY INITIATED FAILURE AND RISK REDUCTION
APPENDIX: MONTE CARLO SIMULATION ROUTINES USED IN THE ALGORITHMS FOR RISK-BASED RELIABILITY ANALYSIS
Prof. Todinov's background is Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science. He holds a PhD and a higher doctorate (DEng) from the University of Birmingham. His name is associated with key results in the areas: Reliability and Risk, Flow networks, Probability, Statistics of inhomogeneous media, Theory of phase transformations, Residual stresses and Probabilistic fatigue and fracture.
M.Todinov pioneered research on: the theory of repairable flow networks and networks with disturbed flows, risk-based reliability analysis - driven by the cost of system failure, fracture initiated by flaws in components with complex shape, reliability dependent on the relative configurations of random variables and optimal allocation of a fixed budget to achieve a maximal risk reduction.
A sample of M.Todinov's results include: introducing the hazard stress function for modelling the probability of failure of materials and deriving the correct alternative of the Weibull model; stating a theorem regarding the exact upper bound of properties from multiple sources and a theorem regarding variance of a distribution mixture; the formulation and proof of the necessary and sufficient conditions of the Palmgren-Miner rule and Scheil's additivity rule; deriving the correct alternative of the Johnson-Mehl-Avrami-Kolmogorov equation and stating the dual network theorems for static flows networks and networks with disturbed flows.