NIESR uses statistical projection techniques to project UK GDP one month ahead, giving NIESR's highly respected monthly UK GDP estimates. It also estimates economic growth in the three months ending in the month just ended. This means that each calendar quarter an estimate of quarterly growth is produced about 3 weeks ahead of the Office of National Statistics. The model is used internally in the Institute quarterly forecast published in the Review. Externally, it is used by a group of subscribers.
The importance of the NIESR GDP estimates is well recognised, being widely reported in the press. The minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee sometimes refer to them as one of the factors which influence interest rate decisions. The data is always consistent with the latest official data.
Table 1: Summary table of quarterly growth rates showing monthly data, 3 months ending in that month, and quarterly growth (% per quarter). All contain figures for industry & GDP.
Table 2: Output by sector (industry, agriculture, construction, private services, public services, GDP(B) (calculated at prices excluding taxes and subsidies), GDP
Table 3: Output in quarter ending in month shown by sector (as above)
Table 4: Growth in quarter ending in month shown over previous quarter (% at annual rate) by sector (as above)