CPM Platinum Group Metals Long-Term Outlook

  • ID: 2063893
  • Report
  • Region: Global
  • 245 Pages
  • CPM Group
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A Comprehensive Study of the Global PGM Market Including Projections Through 2020 of PGM Supply, Demand by End-use, and Prices
New This Year - Dedicated Section on China’s PGM Markets

The PGM Long-Term Outlook analyzes the platinum, palladium, and rhodium markets in great detail, both illuminating the long-term historical trends in supply, demand, and prices and presenting potential and likely trends in supply, demand, and prices over the coming 10 years under three distinct scenarios.

CPM Group’s long-term analyses are based on both macroeconomic and microeconomic approaches. CPM Group uses a top-down analysis of economic, financial, and political trends both globally and in major countries and regions to provide the umbrella overview of the economic environment in which these metals markets will develop. This is combined with a detailed bottom-up analysis of individual sectors of supply and demand, including the extremely important and highly illusive areas of secondary recovery of PGMs from scrapped manufactured products, and the use of these metals in a wide array of industrial applications, from auto catalysts and jewelry to petroleum and refining process catalysts, electronics, and other manufacturing applications.

CPM Group’s research also incorporates the company’s intimate knowledge of the investment markets for precious metals, including both over the counter physical demand trends and the more transparent retail investment products recently introduced.

KEY FEATURES AT A GLANCE

- 35 Years of Historical Supply and Demand Data
- 10 Year Detailed Supply and Demand Projections, and Price Forecasts for each of the three Major PGMs
- Disaggregated Statistics on the PGM Markets in China
- PGM Supply Details by Major Producer Countries and Companies
- PGM Fabrication Demand Growth Forecasts for Auto, Jewelry, Electronics, Chemical, Glass, and Other Uses
- PGM Market Projections and Price Forecasts under Alternate Scenarios
- CPM Group’s 10-Year Economic Outlook
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Price Forecasts: Base Case Scenario
Base Case Scenario: Platinum Chart: Real and Nominal Platinum Prices
Chart: Platinum Surplus and Deficit
Chart: Platinum Supply and Demand
Table: Platinum Supply, Demand, and Prices
Base Case Scenario: Palladium Chart: Real and Nominal Palladium Prices
Chart: Palladium Surplus and Deficit
Chart: Palladium Supply and Demand
Table: Palladium Supply, Demand, and Prices
Base Case Scenario: Rhodium Chart: Real and Nominal Rhodium Prices
Chart: Rhodium Surplus and Deficit
Chart: Rhodium Supply and Demand
Table: Rhodium Supply, Demand, and Prices

Economic Overview
Chart: Real Gross Domestic Product projected through 2016
Chart: Vehicles Per Thousand People
Charts: Relation between Global Vehicle Sales and Gross Domestic Product
Mine Supply

Focus on Platinum Group Metals Supply from South Africa
Table: Planned Capacity Expansion at Eskom (2007 — 2018)
Chart: Exchange Rate: South African Rand/ U.S. Dollar
Chart: Approximate South African PGM Cash Cost Break Down
Chart: Average South African PGM Cash Costs
Table: Typical Expected Time Line for Platinum Group Metal Projects
Table: Pipeline Projects: Deposits Containing Platinum Group Metals
Table: Average Grades of Precious Metals in the Merensky, UG2, and Platreef Ores of South Africa
Chart: South African PGM Production Indexed to 100
Table: UG2 Share of Tonnes Mined from Bushveld Complex by Platinum Manufacturers
Table: South African Platinum Mine Production, Projected Through 2020
Table: South African Palladium Mine Production, Projected Through 2020
Table: South African Rhodium Mine Production, Projected Through 2020

Focus on Platinum Group Metals Supply in Russia
Table: Russia Norilsk: Estimated Composition of Platinum Group Metals Ores
Table: Russian Platinum Production and Exports, Projected Through 2020
Chart: Russian Platinum Production and Exports, Projected Through 2020
Table: Russian Palladium Production and Exports, Projected Through 2020
Chart: Russian Palladium Production and Exports, Projected Through 2020
Table: Russian Rhodium Production and Exports, Projected Through 2020
Chart: Russian Rhodium Production and Exports, Projected Through 2020

Focus on Platinum Group Metals Supply in North America
Other Producers of Platinum Group Metals
Chart: PGM Mine Production in Zimbabwe
Table: 4E Resources in Zimbabwe

Secondary Supply
Focus on Platinum Group Metals Secondary Supply
Chart: Platinum Secondary Supply and Price
Table: Vehicle Scrappage Schemes in Europe and the United States
Chart: Palladium Secondary Supply and Price
Chart: Rhodium Secondary Supply and Price
Fabrication Demand
Focus on Platinum Group Metals Demand in Automotive Catalysts
Chart: Autocatalysts' Use of PGMs (1976 — 2020p)
Chart: Global Vehicle Sales (1999 — 2020p)
Table: Global Vehicle Production (1999 — 2020p)
Table: Global Vehicle Sales (1999 — 2020p)
Trends in the US Auto Market
Chart: Vehicle Sales in the United States (1999 — 2020p)
Chart: Ratio of U.S. Car to Light Truck Sales
Chart: Monthly Vehicle Sales in the United States
Trends in the European Auto Market
Chart: Vehicle Sales in Europe (1999 — 2020p)
Chart: Average Engine Size of Newly Registered Vehicle in Europe
Chart: Diesel Engine Share of New Car Registration in Western Europe
Trends in the Japanese Auto Market
Chart: Vehicle Sales in Japan (1999 — 2020p)
Trends in the BRIC Auto Market
Chart: Vehicle Sales in China (1999 — 2020p)
Chart: Vehicle Sales in Brazil (1999 — 2020p)
Chart: Flex Fuel Vehicle Sales in Brazil
Chart: Vehicle Sales in India (1999 — 2020p)
Chart: Vehicle Sales in Russia (1999 — 2020p)
Trends in Commercial Vehicle Sales
Chart: Commercial Vehicle Sales in Major Auto Markets
Gasoline and Diesel Engines
Global Emissions Standards by Major Market
Chart: Percentage Decline in Nox Emissions from Previous Standards
Chart: European Gasoline Passenger Vehicle Emissions Standards
Chart: European Diesel Passenger Vehicle Emissions Standards
Table: Emission Standards in Major Auto Markets
Platinum Group Metal Demand in Jewelry
Platinum Group Metals Demand in Electronics
Chart: Palladium Electronics Demand (1976 — 2020p)
Chart: Platinum Electronics Demand (1976 — 2020p)
Chart: Rhodium Electronics Demand (1976 — 2020p)
Other End-Uses
Chart: Global Crude Oil Distillation Capacity
Chart: Rhodium Demand in Glass
Chart: Palladium Demand in Dental
Potential Threats to Platinum Group Metals Demand
Investment Demand
Platinum Group Metals Investment Demand
Chart: Annual Net Additions to Platinum and Palladium Exchange Traded Products
Chart: Net Additions to Platinum and Palladium ETFs as Percentage of Supply
Table: Month-End Exchange Traded Physical Platinum Holdings
Table: Month-End Exchange Traded Physical Palladium Holdings
Chart: Exchange Traded Funds' Physical Platinum Holdings
Chart: Exchange Traded Funds' Physical Palladium Holdings
Chart: Gross Long and Short Non-Commercial Positions, Nymex Platinum Futures & Options
Chart: Gross Long and Short Non-Commercial Positions, Nymex Palladium Futures & Options
Chart: Positions in Nymex Platinum and Palladium Markets
Chart: Disaggregated Platinum Commitment of Traders Reports
Chart: Disaggregated Palladium Commitment of Traders Reports
Chart: ETF Holdings, Non-Commercial Long Contracts, and Prices for Platinum and Palladium
Chart: U.S. Eagle Platinum Bullion Coin Sales
Table: U.S. Eagle Platinum Bullion Coin Sales
China's Platinum Group Metals Markets
Focus on Platinum Group Metals Markets in China
Chart: Chinese Platinum Mine Production
Chart: Chinese Palladium Mine Production
Chart: Chinese Mine and Secondary Production of Platinum
Chart: Chinese Mine and Secondary Production of Palladium
Chart: Chinese Net Imports of Platinum
Chart: Chinese Net Imports of Palladium
Chart: Chinese Net Imports of Rhodium
Chart: PGMs Fabrication Demand from China's Auto Sector
Chart: Chinese Passenger and Commercial Vehicle Sales Growth
Chart: Ratio of Chinese Gasoline and Diesel Vehicle Sales
Chart: Ratio of Chinese Passenger and Commercial Vehicle Sales
Chart: Chinese Passenger Vehicle Sales By Size…
Chart: Percentage of Chinese Passenger Car Sales By Size
Chart: Market Share of SUVs in the Chinese Auto Market
Chart: Annual SUV Sales in China
Chart: Chinese Commercial Vehicle Sales By Type
Chart: Emission Standards For Light and Heavy Duty Vehicles in China
Chart: Chinese Vehicle Sales
Chart: Chinese Platinum Jewelry Demand
Chart: Chinese New Marriage Registration
Chart: Chinese Palladium Jewelry Demand
Table: China Platinum Supply And Demand
Table: China Palladium Supply And Demand
Table: China Rhodium Supply And Demand
Platinum and Palladium Markets
Platinum Markets
Chart: Platinum—Trading Volume in the Futures Market
Table: Nymex Platinum Trading Volume
Table: Tocom Platinum Trading Volume
Chart: Nymex Platinum Trading Volume
Chart: Tocom Platinum Trading Volume
Chart: Platinum—Open Interest in the Futures Market
Chart: Exchange Stocks of Platinum
Table: Nymex Platinum Open Interest
Table: Tocom Platinum Open Interest
Chart: Nymex Platinum Open Interest
Chart: Tocom Platinum Open Interest
Palladium Markets
Chart: Palladium—Trading Volume in the Futures Market
Table: Nymex Palladium Trading Volume
Table: Tocom Palladium Trading Volume
Chart: Nymex Palladium Trading Volume
Chart: Tocom Palladium Trading Volume
Chart: Palladium—Open Interest in the Futures Market
Chart: Exchange Stocks of Palladium
Table: Nymex Palladium Open Interest
Table: Tocom Palladium Open Interest
Chart: Nymex Palladium Open Interest
Chart: Tocom Palladium Open Interest
Price Forecast: Alternate Scenarios
Introduction to Alternate Scenarios
Platinum
Chart: Real Platinum Prices, Three Scenarios
Table: Real Platinum Prices, Three Scenarios
Scenario 2: High Case (30% Probability)
Chart: Real and Nominal Platinum Prices, High Case
Chart: Platinum Surplus and Deficit, High Case
Chart: Platinum Supply and Demand, High Case
Table: Platinum Supply, Demand, and Prices, High Case
Scenario 3: Low Case (30% Probability)
Chart: Real and Nominal Platinum Prices, Low Case
Chart: Platinum Supply and Demand, Low Case
Chart: Platinum Surplus and Deficit, Low Case
Table: Platinum Supply, Demand, and Prices, Low Case
Palladium
Chart: Real Palladium Prices, Three Scenarios
Table: Real Palladium Prices, Three Scenarios
Scenario 2: High Case (30% Probability)
Chart: Real and Nominal Palladium Prices, High Case
Chart: Palladium Supply and Demand, High Case
Chart: Palladium Surplus and Deficit, High Case
Table: Palladium Supply, Demand, and Prices, High Case
Scenario 3: Low Case (30% Probability)
Chart: Real and Nominal Palladium Prices, Low Case
Chart: Palladium Supply and Demand, Low Case
Chart: Palladium Surplus and Deficit, Low Case
Table: Palladium Supply, Demand, and Prices, Low Case
Rhodium
Chart: Real Rhodium Prices, Three Scenarios
Table: Real Rhodium Prices, Three Scenarios
Scenario 2: High Case (30% Probability)
Chart: Real and Nominal Rhodium Prices, High Case
Chart: Rhodium Surplus and Deficit, High Case
Chart: Rhodium Supply and Demand, High Case
Table: Rhodium Supply, Demand, and Prices, High Case
Chart: Palladium Price Volatility
Chart: Platinum-Palladium Price Differential
The Price of Rhodium
Chart: The Price of Rhodium
Scenario 3: Low Case (30% Probability)
Chart: Real and Nominal Rhodium Prices, Low Case
Chart: Rhodium Supply and Demand, Low Case
Chart: Rhodium Surplus and Deficit, Low Case
Table: Rhodium Supply, Demand, and Prices, Low Case
PGM Prices
The Price of Platinum
Chart: The Price of Platinum
Chart: Platinum Price Volatility
Chart: Platinum-Gold Price Differential
The Price of Palladium
Chart: The Price of Palladium
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