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The Economist Intelligence Unit expects relations between Bahrain and Qatar to remain tense over the forecast period as Bahrain continues to participate in the regional boycott of Qatar. Saudi Arabia is Bahrain's key Gulf backer, and any domestic unrest and economic uncertainty could oblige Bahrain to seek increased support from Saudi Arabia at some point in 2019-23.
We forecast that real GDP growth will pick up in 2019, because of an increase in Bahrain's aluminium and refined oil capacity, before easing in 2020, as the global economy slows. Although falling global oil prices will negatively affect government and private consumption in 2019-20, consumer sentiment will pick up in 2021-23 as oil prices recover.
The current account will remain in deficit throughout the forecast period. However, increasing export earnings, owing to a rise in oil prices, in addition to a pick-up in aluminium and refined oil exports in the latter years of the forecast period, will lead to a narrowing of the shortfall to 4.7% of GDP in 2023, from an average of 6.7% of GDP in 2019-22.
We forecast that real GDP growth will pick up in 2019, because of an increase in Bahrain's aluminium and refined oil capacity, before easing in 2020, as the global economy slows. Although falling global oil prices will negatively affect government and private consumption in 2019-20, consumer sentiment will pick up in 2021-23 as oil prices recover.
The current account will remain in deficit throughout the forecast period. However, increasing export earnings, owing to a rise in oil prices, in addition to a pick-up in aluminium and refined oil exports in the latter years of the forecast period, will lead to a narrowing of the shortfall to 4.7% of GDP in 2023, from an average of 6.7% of GDP in 2019-22.
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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Country Forecast Bahrain Updater
Country forecast overview: Highlights
Country forecast overview: Key indicators
Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings
Country forecast overview: Bahrain's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure
Technological readiness
Fact sheet
Outlook for 2019-23: Political stability
Outlook for 2019-23: Election watch
Outlook for 2019-23: International relations
Outlook for 2019-23: Policy trends
Outlook for 2019-23: Fiscal policy
Outlook for 2019-23: Monetary policy
Outlook for 2019-23: Economic growth
Outlook for 2019-23: Inflation
Outlook for 2019-23: Exchange rates
Outlook for 2019-23: External sector
Data summary: Global outlook
Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin
Data summary: Growth and productivity
Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size
Data summary: Fiscal indicators
Data summary: Monetary indicators
Data summary: Employment, wages and prices
Data summary: Current account and terms of trade
Data summary: Foreign direct investment
Data summary: External debt
Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations
Country forecast overview: Highlights
Country forecast overview: Key indicators
Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings
Country forecast overview: Bahrain's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure
Technological readiness
Fact sheet
Outlook for 2019-23: Political stability
Outlook for 2019-23: Election watch
Outlook for 2019-23: International relations
Outlook for 2019-23: Policy trends
Outlook for 2019-23: Fiscal policy
Outlook for 2019-23: Monetary policy
Outlook for 2019-23: Economic growth
Outlook for 2019-23: Inflation
Outlook for 2019-23: Exchange rates
Outlook for 2019-23: External sector
Data summary: Global outlook
Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin
Data summary: Growth and productivity
Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size
Data summary: Fiscal indicators
Data summary: Monetary indicators
Data summary: Employment, wages and prices
Data summary: Current account and terms of trade
Data summary: Foreign direct investment
Data summary: External debt
Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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