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Country Forecast Bahrain Updater

  • ID: 2101432
  • Country Profile
  • October 2020
  • Region: Bahrain
  • 17 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
The ruling Al Khalifa family will remain in power throughout the forecast period (2021-25), supported by its Gulf allies, namely the UAE and Saudi Arabia. However, the kingdom will face growing social unrest, exacerbated by a weakening economy and the government's resolute stance against dissent.

Low oil revenue receipts and a large fiscal stimulus package aimed at mitigating the economic impact of the coronavirus (Covid-19) will maintain a sizeable fiscal deficit and a rise in public debt. This will force the government to resort to urgent fiscal consolidation and austerity measures in the aftermath of the pandemic, causing latent social tensions to resurface.

After a sharp real GDP contraction in 2020, the recovery will be slow, held back by the urgent need for fiscal rationalisation, with real GDP surpassing 2019 levels only in 2023. Thereafter, the development of the newly discovered Khaleej al-Bahrain oilfield will result in a sharp uptick in oil output, driving up growth to a peak of just over 10% in 2025.
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Country Forecast Bahrain Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Bahrain's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market
Technological readiness

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2021-25: Political stability

Outlook for 2021-25: Election watch

Outlook for 2021-25: International relations

Outlook for 2021-25: Policy trends

Outlook for 2021-25: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2021-25: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2021-25: Economic growth

Outlook for 2021-25: Inflation

Outlook for 2021-25: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2021-25: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data summary: External debt

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
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