The ruling Al Khalifa family will remain in power throughout the forecast period (2021-25), supported by its Gulf allies, namely the UAE and Saudi Arabia. However, the kingdom will face growing social unrest, exacerbated by a weakening economy and the government's resolute stance against dissent.
Low oil revenue receipts and a large fiscal stimulus package aimed at mitigating the economic impact of the coronavirus (Covid-19) will maintain a sizeable fiscal deficit and a rise in public debt. This will force the government to resort to urgent fiscal consolidation and austerity measures in the aftermath of the pandemic, causing latent social tensions to resurface.
After a sharp real GDP contraction in 2020, the recovery will be slow, held back by the urgent need for fiscal rationalisation, with real GDP surpassing 2019 levels only in 2023. Thereafter, the development of the newly discovered Khaleej al-Bahrain oilfield will result in a sharp uptick in oil output, driving up growth to a peak of just over 10% in 2025.
Low oil revenue receipts and a large fiscal stimulus package aimed at mitigating the economic impact of the coronavirus (Covid-19) will maintain a sizeable fiscal deficit and a rise in public debt. This will force the government to resort to urgent fiscal consolidation and austerity measures in the aftermath of the pandemic, causing latent social tensions to resurface.
After a sharp real GDP contraction in 2020, the recovery will be slow, held back by the urgent need for fiscal rationalisation, with real GDP surpassing 2019 levels only in 2023. Thereafter, the development of the newly discovered Khaleej al-Bahrain oilfield will result in a sharp uptick in oil output, driving up growth to a peak of just over 10% in 2025.
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
Country Forecast Bahrain Updater
Country forecast overview: Highlights
Country forecast overview: Key indicators
Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings
Country forecast overview: Bahrain's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure
Technological readiness
Fact sheet
Outlook for 2021-25: Political stability
Outlook for 2021-25: Election watch
Outlook for 2021-25: International relations
Outlook for 2021-25: Policy trends
Outlook for 2021-25: Fiscal policy
Outlook for 2021-25: Monetary policy
Outlook for 2021-25: Economic growth
Outlook for 2021-25: Inflation
Outlook for 2021-25: Exchange rates
Outlook for 2021-25: External sector
Data summary: Global outlook
Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin
Data summary: Growth and productivity
Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size
Data summary: Fiscal indicators
Data summary: Monetary indicators
Data summary: Employment, wages and prices
Data summary: Current account and terms of trade
Data summary: Foreign direct investment
Data summary: External debt
Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations
Country forecast overview: Highlights
Country forecast overview: Key indicators
Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings
Country forecast overview: Bahrain's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure
Technological readiness
Fact sheet
Outlook for 2021-25: Political stability
Outlook for 2021-25: Election watch
Outlook for 2021-25: International relations
Outlook for 2021-25: Policy trends
Outlook for 2021-25: Fiscal policy
Outlook for 2021-25: Monetary policy
Outlook for 2021-25: Economic growth
Outlook for 2021-25: Inflation
Outlook for 2021-25: Exchange rates
Outlook for 2021-25: External sector
Data summary: Global outlook
Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin
Data summary: Growth and productivity
Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size
Data summary: Fiscal indicators
Data summary: Monetary indicators
Data summary: Employment, wages and prices
Data summary: Current account and terms of trade
Data summary: Foreign direct investment
Data summary: External debt
Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
