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Country Risk Service Bolivia

  • ID: 2101530
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Bolivia
  • 26 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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Sovereign risk remains B-rated. Large public deficits since 2014 have resulted in increasing debt stocks, bringing the public debt/GDP ratio to an estimated 51.6% in 2018. The fiscal deficit should narrow after 2019, an election year, but an unexpected fall in energy prices or more expansive policies in the run-up to the election (on October 20th) than currently foreseen could jeopardise the rating.

The currency rating remains B. This reflects an overvalued currency that has eroded reserves and weighs on the trade balance. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the currency peg to be abandoned in 2020. We expect the process to be smooth, but risks linger and a downgrade is not out of the question.

The banking sector rating remains in the B band. The sector is supported by sustained GDP growth. However, public policies, including state intervention and continued inadequate supervision of the sector, raise risks to asset quality-and to the rating.
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Country Risk Service Bolivia

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Currency risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook
Foreign-exchange regime

Banking sector risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Generic risks
Political risk assessment
Economic structure risk assessment

Country risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2019-23: Political stability

Central scenario for 2019-23: Election watch

Central scenario for 2019-23: International relations

Central scenario for 2019-23: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2019-23: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2019-23: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2019-23: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2019-23: Inflation

Central scenario for 2019-23: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2019-23: External sector

Central scenario for 2019-23: External financing requirement

Central scenario for 2019-23: External debt

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service
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