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Country Risk Service Hungary

  • ID: 2101534
  • Country Profile
  • June 2021
  • Region: Hungary
  • 25 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
In The Economist Intelligence Unit's June assessment, the sovereign risk score is unchanged at 48, with a rating of BB. Large fiscal imbalances accrued during the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic are the main source of risk. The rating is unlikely to change over the next 18 months.

The currency risk score worsens by 1 point, to 40, with the rating unchanged at BB. The main sources of risk are a large gross external financing requirement, exceptionally low interest rates and vulnerability to renewed bouts of risk aversion in global financial markets, as the pandemic continues. The rating is likely to be upgraded over the next 18 months.

The banking sector risk score is unchanged at 43 and the rating stays at BB. Banking sector vulnerabilities have risen as a consequence of the coronavirus pandemic. In particular, banks are exposed to the risk of a deterioration in asset quality, most notably in connection with increased corporate bankruptcies in the sectors most affected by the lockdowns.
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Country Risk Service Hungary

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Currency risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook
Foreign-exchange regime

Banking sector risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Generic risks
Political risk assessment
Economic structure risk assessment

Country risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2021-25: Political stability

Central scenario for 2021-25: Election watch

Central scenario for 2021-25: International relations

Central scenario for 2021-25: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2021-25: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2021-25: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2021-25: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2021-25: Inflation

Central scenario for 2021-25: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2021-25: External sector

Central scenario for 2021-25: External financing requirement

Central scenario for 2021-25: External debt

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service
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