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Country Risk Service Bosnia-Hercegovina

  • ID: 2101606
  • Country Profile
  • April 2020
  • Region: Global
  • 25 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The sovereign risk rating is unchanged, at B. The public finances have improved in recent years, with Bosnia and Hercegovina (BiH) recording consistent fiscal surpluses in 2016-19. Public debt is less than 40% of GDP, but the government's fiscal response to the coronavirus pandemic is limited by its dependence on official external financing assistance.

The currency risk rating is unchanged, at B. The Central Bank of BiH has improved its reserve-management framework in recent years. Prior to the crisis, foreign reserves were sufficient to cover all the central bank's liabilities. The central bank is committed to the currency peg to the euro.

The rating remains at B. The foreign-dominated banking sector has fairly high capital and liquidity buffers. Non-performing loans are falling, but are still high, at 7.7% of total loans at the end of the third quarter of 2019-although this progress could come to a halt amid the current health crisis.
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Country Risk Service Bosnia-Hercegovina

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Currency risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook
Foreign-exchange regime

Banking sector risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Generic risks
Political risk assessment
Economic structure risk assessment

Country risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2020-24: Political stability

Central scenario for 2020-24: Election watch

Central scenario for 2020-24: International relations

Central scenario for 2020-24: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2020-24: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2020-24: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2020-24: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2020-24: Inflation

Central scenario for 2020-24: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2020-24: External sector

Central scenario for 2020-24: External financing requirement

Central scenario for 2020-24: External debt

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service
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