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Country Forecast Brazil Updater

  • ID: 2105420
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Brazil
  • 18 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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Jair Bolsonaro of the right-wing Partido Social Liberal started a four-year term on January 1st 2019 with a reasonably firm mandate. Congress will be even more fragmented than in the past, adding to governability risks. Mr Bolsonaro will try to enact his agenda of free-market reforms and conservative social and law-and-order policies with support from cross-party interest groups, rather than by distributing favours to political parties directly in formal alliances, as was the custom in the past. However, these efforts could break down soon.

While recognising the risks, The Economist Intelligence Unit expects pension reform to be approved by September 2019, albeit in a watered down form. This will support investor confidence by helping to slow the rise in the public debt/GDP ratio-but the ratio will remain high, at around 85% by 2023. The Banco Central do Brasil (BCB, the central bank) will begin a mild rate-tightening cycle in 2020 as the economy picks up. Inflation will average just under 4% during the forecast period, barring food-supply shocks.

After tepid growth in 2019, Brazil's economy will pick up. We forecast annual average growth of 2.5% per year in 2020-23-assuming sound macroeconomic policies by the Bolsonaro government. If prospects for growth-enhancing reforms improve, there is an upside risk to these forecasts. Fiscal restraint will impede faster growth in the medium term, as will a US economic slowdown in 2020.
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Country Forecast Brazil Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Brazil's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy toward foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market
Technological readiness

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2019-23: Political stability

Outlook for 2019-23: Election watch

Outlook for 2019-23: International relations

Outlook for 2019-23: Policy trends

Outlook for 2019-23: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2019-23: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2019-23: Economic growth

Outlook for 2019-23: Inflation

Outlook for 2019-23: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2019-23: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data summary: External debt

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
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