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Country Risk Service Syria Updater

  • ID: 2105457
  • Country Profile
  • January 2021
  • Region: Syria
  • 21 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
Sovereign risk is D-rated. The government is in default, owing to a low level of reserves as well as large current-account and budget deficits, and this continues to weigh heavily on the rating. The regime will be forced to repay a small amount of its debts to its Russian backers, and will lean on the business elite to fund repayments, although the sums will be paltry considering the scale of debt owed.

Currency risk has a C rating. The Central Bank of Syria devalued the official rate of the Syrian pound in June, from S£436.5:US$1 to S£1,256:US$1, after a sharp depreciation of the value of the pound against the US dollar on the black market. However, the gap between the official rate and the black-market rate remains wide, weighing on the score.

Banking sector risk is C-rated. Banks face growing exchange-rate fluctuations, rocketing inflation and a contraction in foreign-exchange liquidity. Political interference in credit allocation has risen during the conflict and is now prevalent throughout the system.
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Country Risk Service Syria Updater

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2021-25: Political stability

Central scenario for 2021-25: Election watch

Central scenario for 2021-25: International relations

Central scenario for 2021-25: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2021-25: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2021-25: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2021-25: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2021-25: Inflation

Central scenario for 2021-25: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2021-25: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service
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