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Risk Ratings Review (CRS)

  • ID: 2114073
  • Country Profile
  • 52 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The Economist Intelligence Unit has long been forecasting a slowdown in global growth in 2019-20. However, recent data suggest that the world's three major economies proved surprisingly resilient in the first quarter. In the US, real GDP growth stood at a solid 3.2% year on year, a robust headline for an economy operating at near-full employment. In the euro zone, output expanded by 0.4% quarter on quarter over the same period, the strongest quarterly expansion in a year. The single-currency area posts record-low unemployment rates, and the latest high-frequency data paint a positive picture in the services and construction sectors, offsetting softer manufacturing data. In China, a revival in the industrial sector stabilised economic growth, defying our expectations that the slowdown in economic growth that began in the third quarter of 2018 would extend further. Coupled with the rollout of fifth-generation (5G) technology in a number of Asian countries this year, the recent solid Chinese performance will support global trade in the second half of 2019.

These rosier data will offer some respite to central bankers across developed economies, who had previously been weighing up whether a cautious "wait and see" approach was still appropriate or whether it was time to brace for impact and prepare for more stimulus.

However, a more detailed analysis of the latest growth figures across developed markets does not alter our view that 2019-20 will be marked by a global slowdown. In the US the two main contributors to growth in the first quarter were external trade (owing to a sharp deceleration in import growth) and a surge in inventories. This is cause for serious concern. High inventories will later become a drag on growth; a slowdown in import growth hints at slowing consumer demand, in line with other high-frequency indicators.
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Risk Ratings Review (CRS)

Ratings changes and outlook: Upgrades and downgrades

Global risk review
World's largest economies proved surprisingly resilient in first quarter
Detailed analysis of US growth data paints a contrasting picture
Global trade is slowing sharply
The Brexit saga remains unsolved
Rerun of Istanbul mayoral election weighs on the lira
Argentina and Venezuela remain hotspots of volatility in Latin America
Iran sanctions will continue to fuel US-EU tensions

Key regional risks: Americas

Key regional risks: Asia and Australasia

Key regional risks: Europe

Key regional risks: Middle East and North Africa

Key regional risks: Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas: Sovereign risk
April 2019

Americas: Currency risk
April 2019

Americas: Banking sector risk
April 2019

Asia and Australasia: Sovereign risk
April 2019

Asia and Australasia: Currency risk
April 2019

Asia and Australasia: Banking sector risk
April 2019

Europe: Sovereign risk
April 2019

Europe: Currency risk
April 2019

Europe: Banking sector risk
April 2019

Middle East and North Africa
Sovereign risk
April 2019

Middle East and North Africa: Currency risk
April 2019

Middle East and North Africa: Banking sector risk
April 2019

Sub-Saharan Africa: Sovereign risk
April 2019

Sub-Saharan Africa: Currency risk
April 2019

Sub-Saharan Africa: Banking sector risk
April 2019

Country risk ratings

Country risk ratings: Rating definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Monthly countries: Americas: Sovereign risk ratings

Monthly countries: Americas: Currency risk ratings

Monthly countries: Americas: Banking sector risk ratings

Monthly countries: Americas: Political risk ratings

Monthly countries: Americas: Economic structure risk ratings

Monthly countries: Americas: Overall country risk ratings

Monthly countries: Asia & Australasia: Sovereign risk ratings

Monthly countries: Asia & Australasia: Currency risk ratings

Monthly countries: Asia & Australasia: Banking sector risk ratings

Monthly countries: Asia & Australasia: Political risk ratings

Monthly countries: Asia & Australasia: Economic structure risk ratings

Monthly countries: Asia & Australasia: Overall country risk ratings

Monthly countries: Europe: Sovereign risk ratings

Monthly countries: Europe: Currency risk ratings

Monthly countries: Europe: Banking sector risk ratings

Monthly countries: Europe: Political risk ratings

Monthly countries: Europe: Economic structure risk ratings

Monthly countries: Europe: Overall country risk ratings

Monthly countries: Middle East & North Africa: Sovereign risk ratings

Monthly countries: Middle East & North Africa: Currency risk ratings

Monthly countries: Middle East & North Africa: Banking sector risk ratings

Monthly countries: Middle East & North Africa: Political risk ratings

Monthly countries: Middle East & North Africa: Economic structure risk ratings

Monthly countries: Middle East & North Africa: Overall country risk ratings

Monthly countries: Sub-Saharan Africa: Sovereign risk ratings

Monthly countries: Sub-Saharan Africa: Currency risk ratings

Monthly countries: Sub-Saharan Africa: Banking sector risk ratings

Monthly countries: Sub-Saharan Africa: Political risk ratings

Monthly countries: Sub-Saharan Africa: Economic structure risk ratings

Monthly countries: Sub-Saharan Africa: Overall country risk ratings
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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