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Country Forecast Qatar

  • ID: 2138608
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Qatar
  • 47 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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Background: Qatar became independent from the UK in 1971. Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, who toppled his father in a coup in 1995, pursued a programme of gradual political and economic reform, with a particular focus on developing the country's massive natural gas reserves. Sheikh Hamad officially handed power to his son, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, in a formal ceremony on June 25th 2013.

Political structure: Power in Qatar is concentrated in the hands of the emir, who governs with the assistance of a cabinet that he appoints. Under the 2004 constitution a new Advisory Council should be created, of which two-thirds of the members will be elected. However, the election of the council has been repeatedly delayed, most recently in June 2016, when the emir issued a decree to extend the term of the current (fully appointed) council to 2019. However, elections are now expected to happen in 2019 in an effort to further cement the domestic legitimacy of the government and amid indications that previous postponements of the elections were the result of Saudi pressure.

Policy issues: In April 2017 the government announced that it was lifting its 12-year moratorium on new gas export projects from the giant North Field (which it shares with Iran). It subsequently announced plans for three new liquefied natural gas (LNG) trains, aimed at boosting output by 23m tonnes/year by 2024. It will substantially boost growth and revenue-albeit only after the end of our forecast period. Meanwhile, economic policy will also continue to focus on promoting expansion in the non-oil sector, with pro-business reforms introduced to facilitate greater foreign participation in non-energy areas.
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Country Forecast Qatar

Qatar--highlights: Political outlook

Qatar--highlights: Business environment outlook

Qatar--highlights: Economic outlook

Qatar--highlights: Demographic outlook

Qatar--highlights: Market opportunities

Qatar--highlights: Long-term outlook

Fact sheet

Political outlook: Political forces at a glance

Political outlook: Political stability

Political outlook: Political and institutional effectiveness
The Advisory Council election in 2019 will not significantly affect local politics

Political outlook: Election watch

Political outlook: International relations

Business environment outlook: Business environment rankings

Business environment outlook: Qatar's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market
Technological readiness

Business environment outlook: Macroeconomic environment

Business environment outlook: Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Poor competition regulations contributed to Vodafone's exit

Business environment outlook: Policy towards foreign investment
New foreign investment and PPP laws are expected to be enacted soon

Business environment outlook: Foreign trade and exchange controls
Qatar may look to develop new bilateral trade agreements

Business environment outlook: Taxes

Business environment outlook: Financing
The boycott presents potential challenges for financing
A raft of new IPOs are expected to take place in the coming years

Business environment outlook: The labour market
Proposed law granting permanent residency could make labour market more flexible

Business environment outlook: Infrastructure
Investment spending until 2022 is likely to exceed US$80bn

Business environment outlook: Technological readiness

Economic forecast: Policy trends

Economic forecast: Fiscal policy

Economic forecast: Monetary policy

Economic forecast: International assumptions

Economic forecast: Economic growth

Economic forecast: Sectoral trends
Work will get under way on developing new LNG export projects

Economic forecast: Inflation

Economic forecast: Exchange rates

Economic forecast: External sector

Economic forecast: Foreign direct investment in Qatar
Stocks and flows
Origin and distribution

Demographic assumptions
Population growth will slow as major projects pass peak employment levels
The quality of the Qatari workforce will improve owing to spending on education

Market opportunities: Market outlook
Hydrocarbons wealth will sustain high income per head levels
Real disposable incomes in Qatar will remain high by global standards

Long-term outlook: The long-term outlook

Long-term outlook: Long-term trends
Climate change and sustainability
Technological developments

Long-term outlook: Methodology for long-term forecasts
Growth projections
Definitions of variables
The independent variables include:
Summary of findings
Productivity growth

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data summary: External debt

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

Guide to the business rankings model
Outline of the model
Calculating the rankings
Measurement and grading issues

Indicator scores in the business rankings model
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