Background: In 1952 an army coup brought an end to the monarchy in Egypt. Two years later, Gamal Abdel Nasser, a former military officer, led the country (1954-70) and introduced nationalist policies. Under his successor as president, Anwar Sadat (1970-81), Egypt's political stance shifted towards the West and its economic policies became more liberal. Mr Sadat's signing in 1979 of a peace treaty with Israel eventually led to his assassination and the appointment of his deputy, Hosni Mubarak, as president in 1981. However, Mr Mubarak grew increasingly unpopular among Egyptians as official corruption became rampant during his three-decade tenure, and a popular uprising, backed by the military, forced his resignation in early 2011. The Muslim Brotherhood, which had been banned since 1954, won the parliamentary and presidential elections in 2012; however, in the wake of mass protests, it was ousted by the military in July 2013. The former army chief, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, was elected president in a landslide victory in 2014 and was re-elected in 2018.
Political structure: Egypt's semi-presidential system is based on the 2014 constitution, which granted parliament wider powers, including the right to withdraw confidence from the president. However, the current parliament-elected in late 2015-lacks an effective opposition bloc. In April 2019 the constitution was amended to extend the presidential term and strengthen the powers of the office-including over parliament, the judiciary and the military. Cabinet ministers are often subjected to scrutiny, which can result in their dismissal and, in some cases, court action.
Policy issues: Weak institutional capacity and opposition from vested interests often block economic reform. Nonetheless, the Sisi regime is keen to enhance the business environment and consolidate the public finances through fiscal reform, although reform capacity will be diminished by the need to deal with waves of Covid-19 and by related spending.
Political structure: Egypt's semi-presidential system is based on the 2014 constitution, which granted parliament wider powers, including the right to withdraw confidence from the president. However, the current parliament-elected in late 2015-lacks an effective opposition bloc. In April 2019 the constitution was amended to extend the presidential term and strengthen the powers of the office-including over parliament, the judiciary and the military. Cabinet ministers are often subjected to scrutiny, which can result in their dismissal and, in some cases, court action.
Policy issues: Weak institutional capacity and opposition from vested interests often block economic reform. Nonetheless, the Sisi regime is keen to enhance the business environment and consolidate the public finances through fiscal reform, although reform capacity will be diminished by the need to deal with waves of Covid-19 and by related spending.
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Country Forecast Egypt
Egypt--highlights: Political outlook
Egypt--highlights: Business environment outlook
Egypt--highlights: Economic outlook
Egypt--highlights: Demographic outlook
Egypt--highlights: Market opportunities
Egypt--highlights: Long-term outlook
Fact sheet
Political outlook: Political forces at a glance
The technocratic government is subservient to the president
Political outlook: Political stability
Political outlook: Political and institutional effectiveness
Political outlook: Election watch
Political outlook: International relations
Business environment outlook: Business environment rankings
Policy reforms will continue in a bid to cement earlier gains despite pandemic
Business environment outlook: Egypt's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure
Technological readiness
Business environment outlook: Macroeconomic environment
Reforms of 2016-19 have helped build some resilience during the crisis
High repayment obligations pose long-term threat to external finances
Business environment outlook: Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Legislation to encourage investment in both new and existing projects
Business environment outlook: Policy towards foreign investment
Despite intermittent market pressure, reforms will not be reversed
Transparency on FDI flows is improving
Business environment outlook: Foreign trade and exchange controls
Foreign trade and exchange controls will not be reimposed
Business environment outlook: Taxes
Tax policy will keep most gains, but an element of unpredictability remains
The government has adjusted personal income tax thresholds
Business environment outlook: Financing
Confidence in the financial system has strenghtened despite pandemic blip
Looser monetary policy should allow greater private-sector borrowing
Central bank provides guarantees to ease credit difficulties
Minimum capital requirements are rising for banks
Business environment outlook: The labour market
Unemployment is rising because of the economic fallout from the pandemic
Focus on private-sector employment
Business environment outlook: Infrastructure
Government will seek to sustain growth with continued infrastructure spending
The government is investing heavily in energy and transport infrastructure
Business environment outlook: Technological readiness
Egypt is playing catch-up with technological developments
The ICT sector is gaining increasing attention from the government
Economic forecast: Policy trends
Economic forecast: Fiscal policy
Economic forecast: Monetary policy
Economic forecast: International assumptions
Economic forecast: Economic growth
Economic forecast: Sectoral trends
Economic forecast: Inflation
Economic forecast: Exchange rates
Economic forecast: External sector
Economic forecast: Foreign direct investment in Egypt
Stocks and flows
Origin and distribution
Determinants
Impact
Demographic assumptions
Egypt's population will reach 110m by the end of the forecast period
Outward migration to the Gulf states, Europe and North America will fall
Poverty rate continues to rise
Market opportunities: Market outlook
The pandemic slowed the recovery in incomes but did not halt it
Wide income disparities remain
Retail markets are still underdeveloped
Market opportunities: Consumer expenditure
Market opportunities: Social indicators and living standards
Long-term outlook: The long-term outlook
Long-term outlook: Long-term trends
Climate change and sustainability
Technological developments
Long-term outlook: Methodology for long-term forecasts
Growth projections
Definitions of variables
The independent variables include:
Summary of findings
Productivity growth
Data summary: Global outlook
Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin
Data summary: Growth and productivity
Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size
Data summary: Fiscal indicators
Data summary: Monetary indicators
Data summary: Employment, wages and prices
Data summary: Current account and terms of trade
Data summary: Foreign direct investment
Data summary: External debt
Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations
Guide to the business rankings model
Outline of the model
Calculating the rankings
Measurement and grading issues
Indicator scores in the business rankings model
Egypt--highlights: Political outlook
Egypt--highlights: Business environment outlook
Egypt--highlights: Economic outlook
Egypt--highlights: Demographic outlook
Egypt--highlights: Market opportunities
Egypt--highlights: Long-term outlook
Fact sheet
Political outlook: Political forces at a glance
The technocratic government is subservient to the president
Political outlook: Political stability
Political outlook: Political and institutional effectiveness
Political outlook: Election watch
Political outlook: International relations
Business environment outlook: Business environment rankings
Policy reforms will continue in a bid to cement earlier gains despite pandemic
Business environment outlook: Egypt's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure
Technological readiness
Business environment outlook: Macroeconomic environment
Reforms of 2016-19 have helped build some resilience during the crisis
High repayment obligations pose long-term threat to external finances
Business environment outlook: Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Legislation to encourage investment in both new and existing projects
Business environment outlook: Policy towards foreign investment
Despite intermittent market pressure, reforms will not be reversed
Transparency on FDI flows is improving
Business environment outlook: Foreign trade and exchange controls
Foreign trade and exchange controls will not be reimposed
Business environment outlook: Taxes
Tax policy will keep most gains, but an element of unpredictability remains
The government has adjusted personal income tax thresholds
Business environment outlook: Financing
Confidence in the financial system has strenghtened despite pandemic blip
Looser monetary policy should allow greater private-sector borrowing
Central bank provides guarantees to ease credit difficulties
Minimum capital requirements are rising for banks
Business environment outlook: The labour market
Unemployment is rising because of the economic fallout from the pandemic
Focus on private-sector employment
Business environment outlook: Infrastructure
Government will seek to sustain growth with continued infrastructure spending
The government is investing heavily in energy and transport infrastructure
Business environment outlook: Technological readiness
Egypt is playing catch-up with technological developments
The ICT sector is gaining increasing attention from the government
Economic forecast: Policy trends
Economic forecast: Fiscal policy
Economic forecast: Monetary policy
Economic forecast: International assumptions
Economic forecast: Economic growth
Economic forecast: Sectoral trends
Economic forecast: Inflation
Economic forecast: Exchange rates
Economic forecast: External sector
Economic forecast: Foreign direct investment in Egypt
Stocks and flows
Origin and distribution
Determinants
Impact
Demographic assumptions
Egypt's population will reach 110m by the end of the forecast period
Outward migration to the Gulf states, Europe and North America will fall
Poverty rate continues to rise
Market opportunities: Market outlook
The pandemic slowed the recovery in incomes but did not halt it
Wide income disparities remain
Retail markets are still underdeveloped
Market opportunities: Consumer expenditure
Market opportunities: Social indicators and living standards
Long-term outlook: The long-term outlook
Long-term outlook: Long-term trends
Climate change and sustainability
Technological developments
Long-term outlook: Methodology for long-term forecasts
Growth projections
Definitions of variables
The independent variables include:
Summary of findings
Productivity growth
Data summary: Global outlook
Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin
Data summary: Growth and productivity
Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size
Data summary: Fiscal indicators
Data summary: Monetary indicators
Data summary: Employment, wages and prices
Data summary: Current account and terms of trade
Data summary: Foreign direct investment
Data summary: External debt
Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations
Guide to the business rankings model
Outline of the model
Calculating the rankings
Measurement and grading issues
Indicator scores in the business rankings model
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
