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Country Forecast Peru

  • ID: 2138648
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Peru
  • 50 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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Background: More than 12 years of military rule ended in 1980. Following a decade of economic and social instability, the government of Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000) ended hyperinflation, advanced reforms to liberalise the economy and defeated the Maoist Sendero Luminoso insurgency. However, Mr Fujimori subverted Peru's democratic institutions and committed grave human rights abuses. His government collapsed over a corruption scandal. The subsequent governments have been successful in consolidating macroeconomic stability, but have largely overlooked the structural reforms required to raise productivity levels. The current president, Martín Vizcarra, took office in March 2018 after his predecessor, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (2016-18), stepped down amid mounting allegations of corruption. Mr Vizcarra's term runs to July 2021.

Political structure: The 1993 Constitution established a presidential regime with a powerful executive, elected for five years. Consecutive presidential re-election is not permitted. A 130-member unicameral legislature, elected at the same time as the president, also sits for five years. The government is decentralising revenue and responsibility to the 25 regions (including the constitutional province of Callao).

Policy issues: The Economist Intelligence Unit assumes that there will be continuity of orthodox economic policies and that the business environment will remain attractive. Mr Vizcarra is a former governor and transport minister, and we expect gradual progress on structural reform under his government. The government will focus on improving the quality of and access to the underperforming public education and healthcare systems as it seeks to promote an agenda of inclusive development. Despite government involvement in the market, private investment in transport, energy and water infrastructure will remain strong. Bilateral free-trade agreements with Peru's main trading partners-including the US, China and the EU-as well as initiatives within Latin America, will help to keep investment and trade flows strong in 2018-22.
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Country Forecast Peru

Peru--highlights: Political outlook

Peru--highlights: Business environment outlook

Peru--highlights: Economic outlook

Peru--highlights: Demographic outlook

Peru--highlights: Market opportunities

Peru--highlights: Long-term outlook

Fact sheet

Political outlook: Political forces at a glance

Political outlook: Political stability

Political outlook: Political and institutional effectiveness

Political outlook: Election watch

Political outlook: International relations

Business environment outlook: Business environment rankings

Business environment outlook: Peru's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market
Technological readiness

Business environment outlook: Macroeconomic environment

Business environment outlook: Policy towards private enterprise and competition

Business environment outlook: Policy towards foreign investment

Business environment outlook: Foreign trade and exchange controls

Business environment outlook: Taxes

Business environment outlook: Financing

Business environment outlook: The labour market

Business environment outlook: Infrastructure

Business environment outlook: Technological readiness

Economic forecast: Policy trends

Economic forecast: Fiscal policy

Economic forecast: Monetary policy

Economic forecast: International assumptions

Economic forecast: Economic growth

Economic forecast: Sectoral trends

Economic forecast: Inflation

Economic forecast: Exchange rates

Economic forecast: External sector

Economic forecast: Foreign direct investment in Peru
Stocks and flows
Origin and distribution

Demographic assumptions
Working-age population will outstrip overall population growth
Demographic indicators to improve but from a low base

Market opportunities: Market outlook
The emerging middle class will expand, but remain concentrated in urban areas

Market opportunities: Consumer expenditure
Poverty and social inequality will remain barriers to market growth

Market opportunities: Social indicators and living standards

Long-term outlook: The long-term outlook

Long-term outlook: Long-term trends
Climate change and sustainability
Technological developments

Long-term outlook: Methodology for long-term forecasts
Growth projections
Definitions of variables
The independent variables include:
Summary of findings
Productivity growth

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data summary: External debt

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

Guide to the business rankings model
Outline of the model
Calculating the rankings
Measurement and grading issues

Indicator scores in the business rankings model
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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