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Country Risk Service Philippines

  • ID: 2138880
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Philippines
  • 25 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The score in this risk category improves slightly, from 43 to 42, owing to an increase in the level of the country's foreign-exchange reserves. The rating remains unchanged at BB, however. The ratio of public debt to GDP is low in the Philippines compared with other BB-rated countries. The bulk of this is held by domestic investors.

The rating remains unchanged at BBB, with the score deteriorating to 37, from 36. The change reflects an increase in exchange-rate volatility in recent months. The peso has weakened on the back of a sustained widening in the current-account deficit. However, an anticipated increase in the level of foreign-exchange reserves in 2019-20 will help to support the peso in this period.

The score deteriorates to 43, from 42, with the rating remaining at BB. The banking sector remains healthy, with non-performing loans making up 1.8% of total lending at end-December 2018. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (the central bank) will sanction cuts to benchmark interest rates in 2019-20; this could jeopardise banks' profit margins in this period.
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Country Risk Service Philippines

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Currency risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook
Foreign-exchange regime

Banking sector risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Generic risks
Political risk assessment
Economic structure risk assessment

Country risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2019-23: Political stability

Central scenario for 2019-23: Election watch

Central scenario for 2019-23: International relations

Central scenario for 2019-23: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2019-23: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2019-23: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2019-23: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2019-23: Inflation

Central scenario for 2019-23: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2019-23: External sector

Central scenario for 2019-23: External financing requirement

Central scenario for 2019-23: External debt

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service
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