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Country Risk Service Syria

  • ID: 2138888
  • Country Profile
  • July 2021
  • Region: Syria
  • 27 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
Sovereign risk remains D-rated, despite a 1-point improvement in the score-driven by reduced pressure on foreign reserves as a result of lower short-term debt expectations as imports are compressed in 2021. The government is in default owing to very low foreign reserves, as well as to large current-account and budget deficits, and these continues to weigh heavily on the rating.

Currency risk retains its C rating, with no change to the score. The Central Bank of Syria devalued the official exchange rate in April 2021, from S£1,256:US$1 to S£2,512:US$1, after a sharp depreciation of the Syrian pound against the US dollar on the black market. However, the gap between the official rate and the black-market rate remains wide, weighing on the score.

Banking sector risk remains C-rated, with no change to the score. Banks face growing exchange-rate fluctuations, rocketing inflation and a contraction in foreign-exchange liquidity. Political interference in credit allocation has risen during the conflict and is now widespread throughout the system.
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Country Risk Service Syria

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Currency risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook
Foreign-exchange regime

Banking sector risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Generic risks
Political risk assessment
Economic structure risk assessment

Country risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2021-25: Political stability

Central scenario for 2021-25: Election watch

Central scenario for 2021-25: International relations

Central scenario for 2021-25: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2021-25: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2021-25: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2021-25: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2021-25: Inflation

Central scenario for 2021-25: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2021-25: External sector

Central scenario for 2021-25: External financing requirement

Central scenario for 2021-25: External debt

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service
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