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Country Risk Service Cyprus 4th Quarter

  • ID: 2138952
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Cyprus
  • 20 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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Cyprus's sovereign risk score improves to 37, from 42 in The Economist Intelligence Unit's July ratings report, and its rating is upgraded to BBB from BB. The upgrade reflects reduced political uncertainty and the fiscal discipline maintained by the government in recent years. It also reflects the positive economic outlook and an improved risk profile of public debt. These factors are counterbalanced by high levels of public debt, uncertainty regarding the level of contingent liabilities and an elevated vulnerability to external shocks.

The score improves by 1 point, to 26, and the rating remains at A. The improved economic and institutional outlook for the euro zone has increased its resilience to political risk and external shocks, while structural support for the currency comes from a large regional current-account surplus. We expect the euro to average US$1.19:EUR1 in 2018-19, after US$1.13:EUR1 in 2017.

The banking sector risk rating is unchanged at BB. The health of the sector has continued to improve since capital controls were fully lifted in April 2015. However, the level of non-performing loans is high, slightly under 40% of total credits at the start of 2018.
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Country Risk Service Cyprus 4th Quarter

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Rating outlook

Central scenario for 2019-23: Political stability

Central scenario for 2019-23: Election watch

Central scenario for 2019-23: International relations

Central scenario for 2019-23: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2019-23: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2019-23: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2019-23: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2019-23: Inflation

Central scenario for 2019-23: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2019-23: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade
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