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Country Risk Service United States 1st Quarter

  • ID: 2138979
  • Country Profile
  • March 2021
  • Region: United States
  • 20 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
The sovereign risk score has improved slightly since The Economist Intelligence Unit's last assessment in November 2020. Political risk has eased now that the November 2020 presidential election and the transition period are over. After contracting by 3.5% in 2020, real GDP is forecast to rebound by 4.5% in 2021, supported by continued government spending. Although the public debt/GDP ratio hit 100% in 2020, debt servicing costs will remain manageable.

Currency risk remains A-rated. The US dollar depreciated against most major currencies in late 2020 and early 2021, as the US economic recovery sputtered and monetary policy remained accommodative. We expect it to remain under pressure in the first half of 2021, before it begins a sustained appreciation in the second half of the year as the US economic recovery accelerates.

Banking sector risk remains A-rated. Ample monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve (the central bank) has helped to maintain comfortable liquidity levels. Banks have improved their ability to withstand shocks since the 2008-09 crisis; however, some risks remain, particularly around the level of corporate debt, which exceeded 50% of GDP in the third quarter of 2020-up from 46% at end-2019.
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Country Risk Service United States 1st Quarter

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Rating outlook

Central scenario for 2021-25: Political stability

Central scenario for 2021-25: Election watch

Central scenario for 2021-25: International relations

Central scenario for 2021-25: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2021-25: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2021-25: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2021-25: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2021-25: Inflation

Central scenario for 2021-25: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2021-25: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade
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