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Country Risk Service Italy 3rd Quarter

  • ID: 2192862
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Italy
  • 20 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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Italy's sovereign risk score remains at the less risky end of the BB band. This rating reflects the country's large public debt and modest economic growth, which has constrained revenue and curtailed plans to cut spending. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects a budget deficit of 2.2% of GDP on average in 2018-19, which will keep the public debt elevated, at close to 130% of GDP.

The score improves by two points, to 26, and the rating remains at A. The improved economic and institutional outlook for the euro zone has increased its resilience to political risk, and to external shocks, and structural support for the currency comes from a large regional current-account surplus. We expect the euro to average US$1.19:EUR1 in 2018-19, after averaging US$1.13:EUR1 in 2017.

Banking risk remains at the top end of the BB band. There has been gradual progress in dealing with the sector's weakness, but non-performing loans remain elevated, undermining already weak profitability, which leaves the sector vulnerable to a renewed loss of investor confidence.
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Country Risk Service Italy 3rd Quarter

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Rating outlook

Central scenario for 2018-22: Political stability

Central scenario for 2018-22: Election watch

Central scenario for 2018-22: International relations

Central scenario for 2018-22: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2018-22: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2018-22: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2018-22: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2018-22: Inflation

Central scenario for 2018-22: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2018-22: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade
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