Praise forALWAYS A WINNER
Finding Your Competitive Advantage in an Up and Down Economy
"In much the same way that Good to Great uncovered hitherto hidden secrets of highly successful companies, Navarro′s Always a Winner uses extensive research to reveal the overriding importance of learning how to forecast and strategically manage the business cycle for competitive advantage. In doing so, this book provocatively explores a critical aspect of successful management virtually untapped by the existing strategy literature."
Dan DiMicco, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Nucor Steel
"Always a Winner is an important and timely guide to thriving in challenging economic times. Professor Navarro deftly bridges the academic and business communities, showing corporate leaders how to read economic tea leaves to anticipate business cycles. His ′Master Cyclist′ credo offers many practical tips and real–world case studies for steering companies through turbulent economic seas."
Mark Greene, PhD, Chief Executive Officer, FICO (Fair Isaac Corp.)
"Navarro′s Always a Winner shows why forecasting the economy with a ruler can be lethal for corporate executives and money managers. He demonstrates how to skillfully anticipate the ups and downs of the economy and successfully navigate through them. The current economic crisis clearly demonstrates why this book is so important to have on your bookshelf."
Mark Zandi, Chief Economist and cofounder of Moody′s Economy.com
"Professor Navarro′s astute insight that a recession can do far more damage than any ten competitors underscores the supreme importance of recession–proofing your company in these turbulent times. Navarro not only shows you how to do just that, his ′always a winner′ forecasting tools and management strategies will help you keep your bottom line up even when the economic cycle is down."
Jim Caudill, President, Black & Decker Hardware and Home Improvement
"Navarro′s wealth of real–world examples will show you how to make both economic recessions and recoveries invaluable allies in executing competitive corporate strategies. A must–read!"
Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director, Economic Cycle Research Institute
About the Author xiii
A Big–Picture View of the Always a Winner Organization 1
Chapter 1 Why Recessions Are More Dangerous than Any 10 Competitors 3
Chapter 2 What Good to Great and Always a Winner Organizations Have in Common 5
Chapter 3 What Are the Three Steps to Becoming an Always a Winner Organization? 13
Chapter 4 How to Strategically Manage Through the Business Cycle Seasons 21
Step I: Becoming Your Own Economic Forecaster 33
Chapter 5 How (and Why) the Business Cycle Cycles 35
Chapter 6 How to Forecast the Business Cycle in FourEasy Pieces 43
Chapter 7 Why the GDP Equation Is Your Most Important Forecasting Tool 47
Chapter 8 Why Tracking the Consumer Is the Ultimate Confidence Game 55
Chapter 9 Why Taking the Pulse of Business Investment Is as Simple as ISM 61
Chapter 10 How Falling Exports Can Flatten an Economy in a Flat World 67
Chapter 11 Why Uncle Sam Is the Spender of Last Resort 75
Chapter 12 How Do I Fear Thee, Inflation? Let Me Count the Ways 83
Chapter 13 Why the Bond Market Is Not a Casino 89
Chapter 14 Why Forecasting a Recession Is No Bull (Market) 95
Chapter 15 How the Corporate Earnings Calendar Literally Guides Your Strategy 101
Step II: Always a Winner Strategies through the Business Cycle Seasons 107
Chapter 16 How to Recession–Proof Your Supply Chain 109
Chapter 17 Why Cherry Picking the Talent Pool During Recessions Is Your Quality Key 117
Chapter 18 Why Countercyclical Advertising Is the Best Way to Build Brand and Market Share 125
Chapter 19 Why Companies Often Price Their Products and Manage Credit Exactly Wrong 133
Chapter 20 How To Not Get Run Over by the Capital Expenditures Bandwagon 143
Chapter 21 Why You Should Buy Low and Sell High over the Stock Market Cycle 151
Chapter 22 How to Minimize Your Capital Financing Costs over the Interest Rate Cycle 161
Step III: Building the Always a Winner Organization 169
Chapter 23 Why Always a Winner Organizations Always Begin with a Strong Business Cycle
Management Orientation 171
Chapter 24 How Every Executive Team Can Boost Its Economic and Financial Market Literacy 177
Chapter 25 Why a Facilitative Structure Must Follow Your Business Cycle Management Strategy 185
Chapter 26 Why a Supportive Organizational Culture Is Essential to Always Being a Winner 191
Chapter 27 How to Protect Your 401(k) in an Up–and–Down Stock Market 195
Concluding Thoughts 203
PETER NAVARRO, PHD, is the accomplished author of the bestselling The Coming China Wars, the path–breaking The Well–Timed Strategy, and the investment classic If It′s Raining in Brazil, Buy Starbucks. He is a Professor at the Paul Merage School of Business at the University of California, Irvine, and a regular CNBC contributor. Professor Navarro has been featured on 60 Minutes, and his articles have appeared in a wide range of publications, from BusinessWeek, the Los Angeles Times, New York Times, and Wall Street Journal to the Harvard Business Review, the MIT Sloan Management Review, and the Journal of Business. His free weekly investment newsletter is published at www.peternavarro.com.