"This book is likely to be the most important ever written about oil."
—The late Richard E. Smalley, PhD, Nobel Laureate in Chemistry, 1996 Former University Professor, Gene and Norman Hackerman Professor of Chemistry, Former Professor of Physics, Rice University
"[Simmons] effectively confronts the complacent notion that there are ample oil reserves in Saudi Arabia. Twilight in the Desert should provoke anyone who believes that the recent increase in oil prices reflects either a speculative bubble or short–term supply constraints."
—Edward L. Morse, former deputy assistant secretary of state for international energy policy
"Everyone must understand this thesis, whether you agree or not,since it may change life as we know it."
—Jim Rogers, author of Hot Commodities and Adventure Capitalist
"Matt Simmons′s book is a challenge to Middle Eastern oil producers to provide the world with more and better oil field data . . . If Simmons proves directionally correct, we are in for a huge and early challenge to find alternative transportation fuels."
—Dr. Herman Franssen, President, International Energy Associates, Inc.
"Provides much–needed transparency to a subject long hidden from public view. While all may not agree with its findings, it is the ensuing debate surely to follow that gives value to the author′s efforts."
—Robert E. Ebel, Chairman, Energy Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC
PART ONE FROM BEDOUIN TO BOURGEOISIE 1
1 The Birth of a Nation 5
2 The History of Major Saudi Arabian Oil Discoveries 23
3 Saudi Arabia′s Road to Oil Market Dominance 43
4 The Veil of Secrecy over Saudi Oil Reserves and Production 69
PART TWO THE EBBING OF THE SAUDI OIL BOUNTY 99
5 Saudi Aramco 101
6 Oil Is Not Just Another Commodity 129
PART THREE GIANTS AT THE TIPPING POINT 149
7 Ghawar, the King of Oilfields 151
8 The Second–Tier Oilfields 181
9 The Best of the Rest 199
10 Coming Up Empty in New Exploration 231
11 Turning to Natural Gas 245
PART FOUR TWILIGHT IN THE DESERT 261
12 Saudi Oil Reserves Claims in Doubt 265
13 Facing the Inevitable 281
14 Reading Between the Lines of the Latest News from Aramco 309
15 Aramco Invokes "Fuzzy Logic" to Manage the Future of Saudi Oil 325
16 In Search of Crisper Truths among the Confident Saudi Claims 333
17 Aftermath 341
Appendix A Methodology 355
Appendix B Supporting Technical Data 365
Appendix C The 1974 and 1979 Senate Hearings 377
"The author...is clearly an expert in his field…I recommend anybody in the financial markets read this book." ( Financial Engineering News , October 2006)
"Those who follow with their own tales of imminent economic collapse struggle to emerge from [Simmons′] shadow." (Spectator Business, October, 2008)