"It is a pleasure to see this important book in print. There is deep knowledge concerning particular industries behind the analysis in many of these contributions. From my perspective, the combination of strong econometrics and strong industry–based analysis is hard to beat."
Frank Giarratani, Director and Professor of Economics, University of Pittsburgh
"Walter Labys arrived at the University of Nottingham soon after I had finished a book on the predictability of stock market prices with Oskar Morgenstern, and so I suggested that Walter apply the same approach to the set of speculative markets involving commodities. The result was a huge success; many of the prices seemed to be well approximated by random walks but plenty of other relationships were discovered. Commodity Modeling and Pricing extends the area of study to a wider class of questions as a great range of data and several new generations of econometric techniques have become available. The whole area of commodity modeling will clearly continue to expand in width and depth."
Sir Clive W. J. Granger, University of California San Diego, Nobel Prize Winner in Economics 2003
"This is an impressive collection of essays applying the latest methods for analyzing commodity market behavior. How far this field has come!"
F. Gerard Adams, Emeritus Professor, University of Pennsylvania
How to effectively analyze, model, and forecast today′s commodity markets
Commodity Modeling and Pricing offers a collection of studies by some of the world′s leading economists that will serve as a complete guide to resource commodity behavior. Each study provides state–of–the–art analysis on the modeling of commodity markets and prices and on the application of these methods to agriculture, energy, minerals, and the environment.
This book first considers the way in which commodity prices exhibit nonlinear, cyclical, or chaotic fluctuations over time. It then moves on to emphasize how market disequilibrium reflected in inventory adjustments affects this price behavior. With a fine balance between theoretical and empirical research, these essays point to new ways in which the dynamic if not unstable nature of commodity markets can be dealt with, not only in terms of individual market activity but also in terms of their interactions with the economy and the environment.
Filled with in–depth insights and expert advice, Commodity Modeling and Pricing contains the information you need to excel in this demanding environment.
PART ONE Dynamics of Commodity Price Behavior 1
CHAPTER 1 Indirect Inference and Long Memory: A New Truncated–Series Estimation MethodArmand Sadler, Jean–Baptiste Lesourd, and Velayoudom Marimoutou 3
CHAPTER 2 Procyclicality of Primary Commodity Prices: A Stylized Fact?A. Behrooz Afrasiabi 30
CHAPTER 3 Nonlinear Features of Comovements between Commodity Prices and InflationCatherine Kyrtsou 52
CHAPTER 4 The Oil Price and the Dollar ReconsideredSadek Melhem and Michel Terraza 65
PART TWO Inventory Dynamics and Price Behavior 77
CHAPTER 5 Time–Varying Ratios of Primary and Scrap Metal Prices: Importance of InventoriesIrene M. Xiarchos 79
CHAPTER 6 Metal Prices and the Supply of StoragePaul Crompton and Irene M. Xiarchos 103
CHAPTER 7 Testing for Temporal Asymmetry in the Metal Price–Stock RelationshipEugene Kouassi 118
CHAPTER 8 Do Fluctuations in Wine Stocks Affect Wine Prices?James O. Bukenya 136
PART THREE Dynamics of Resource Markets 167
CHAPTER 9 Dynamic Quadratic Programming in Process ControlBruce A. Bancroft 169
CHAPTER 10 Pollution Taxes and Price Control in the US Coal Market: A Rent Minimization ModelChin W. Yang and Ming–Jeng Hwang 176
CHAPTER 11 A Forecasting Simulation of Coal in Indonesia′s Energy FutureUkar W. Soelistijo 185
CHAPTER 12 Structural Decomposition Analysis of Changes in Material Demand in the U.S. EconomyAdam Rose and Chia–Yon Chen 195
PART FOUR Environmental Resource Dynamics 209
CHAPTER 13 Linking Trade and the Environment in ChinaHaixiao Huang 211
CHAPTER 14 Critical Needs in China′s Water ResourcesAndres Liebenthal 229
CHAPTER 15 Public Input in Rural Land Preservation: Modeling Preference Asymmetries in Stated Preference DataRobert J. Johnston and Kelly Giraud Cullen 247
CHAPTER 16 African Women in Mining PartnershipsBrigitte Bocoum 267
EPILOGUE Conclusions and PerspectiveWalter C. Labys 279
List of Contributors 289