A Companion to Economic Forecasting. Blackwell Companions to Contemporary Economics

  • ID: 2246863
  • Book
  • 620 Pages
  • John Wiley and Sons Ltd
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A Companion to Economic Forecasting provides an accessible and comprehensive account of recent developments in economic forecasting. Each of the chapters has been specially written by an expert in the field, bringing together a range of contrasting approaches and views. Forecasting is a practical venture, so many of the chapters are aimed at practitioners and nonspecialists.

This book surveys a field that has expanded rapidly in recent years. There are no other up–to–date treatments that survey forecasting in a single volume. The Companion provides a comprehensive account of the leading approaches and modeling strategies that are routinely employed. An extensive editorial overview places the contributions in context, and shows their interconnections and commonalities.

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List of Contributors ix

Preface xi

Acknowledgments xiii

1 An Overview of Economic Forecasting 1Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry

2 Predictable Uncertainty in Economic Forecasting 19Neil R. Ericsson

3 Density Forecasting: A Survey 45Anthony S. Tay and Kenneth F. Wallis

4 Statistical Approaches to Modeling and Forecasting Time Series 69Diego J. Pedregal and Peter C. Young

5 Forecasting with Structural Time–Series Models 105Tommaso Proietti

6 Judgmental Forecasting 133Dilek Önkal–Atay, Mary E. Thomson, and Andrew C. Pollock

7 Forecasting for Policy 152Adrian R. Pagan and John Robertson

8 Forecasting Cointegrated VARMA Processes 179Helmut Lütkepohl

9 Multi–Step Forecasting 206R.J. Bhansali

10 The Rationality and Efficiency of Individuals’ Forecasts 222Herman O. Stekler

11 Decision–Based Methods for Forecast Evaluation 241M. Hashem Pesaran and Spyros Skouras

12 Forecast Combination and Encompassing 268Paul Newbold and David I. Harvey

13 Testing Forecast Accuracy 284Roberto S. Mariano

14 Inference About Predictive Ability 299Michael W. McCracken and Kenneth D. West

15 Forecasting Competitions: Their Role in Improving Forecasting Practice and Research 322Robert Fildes and Keith Ord

16 Empirical Comparisons of Inflation Models’ Forecast Accuracy 354Øyvind Eitrheim, Tore Anders Husebø, and Ragnar Nymoen

17 The Forecasting Performance of the OECD Composite Leading Indicators for France, Germany, Italy, and the U.K. 386Gonzalo Camba–Mendez, George Kapetanios, Martin R. Weale, and Richard J. Smith

18 Unit–Root Versus Deterministic Representations of Seasonality for Forecasting 409Denise R. Osborn

19 Forecasting with Periodic Autoregressive Time–Series Models 432Philip Hans Franses and Richard Paap

20 Nonlinear Models and Forecasting 453Ruey S. Tsay

21 Forecasting with Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models 485Stefan Lundbergh and Timo Teräsvirta

22 Forecasting Financial Variables 510Terence C. Mills

23 Explaining Forecast Failure in Macroeconomics 539Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry

Author Index 572

Subject Index 583

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Michael P. Clements
David F. Hendry
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