The studies described range from those that are purely laboratory based to those that involve experts making real world judgments, in areas such as medical and legal decision making, and political and economic forecasting.
- the development of mental models theory and its application in new domains
- the application of "rational analysis" to reasoning and the rejection of logical codes
- the development of the frequentist perspective on probability
- the pragmatic approach to probabilistic reasoning
- the development of "fast–and–frugal" heuristics that outperform traditional methods for judgment and decision making
- an extended two–stage theory of decision making, incorporating prospect theory and support theory
This book will appeal to psychologists, behavioural decision theorists, management scientists, and anybody with an interest in how we think and how we might improve the quality of our thoughts.
Part I: Reasoning.
Chapter 1: A Theory of Hypothetical Thinking (Jonathan St. B.T. Evans, David E. Over and Simon J. Handley).
Chapter 2: Individual Differences in the Development of Reasoning Strategies (Maxwell J. Roberts and Elizabeth J. Newton).
Chapter 3: Generalising Individual Differences and Strategies Across Different Deductive Reasoning Domains (Padraic Monaghan and Keith Stenning).
Chapter 4: Superordinate Principles, Conditions and Conditionals (Neil Fairley and Ken Manktelow).
Chapter 5: Premise Interpretation in Conditional Reasoning (Guy Politzer).
Chapter 6: Probabilities and Pragmatics in Conditional Inference: Suppression and Order Effects (Mike Oaksford and Nick Chater).
Part II: Judgment.
Chapter 7: Verbal Expressions of Uncertainty and Probability (Karl Halvor Teigen and Wibecke Brun).
Chapter 8: Possibilities and Probabilities (Paolo Legrenzi, Vittorio Girotto, Maria Sonino Legrenzi and Philip N. Johnson–Laird).
Chapter 9: The Partitive Conditional Probability (Laura Macchi).
Chapter 10: Naive and yet Enlightened: From Natural Frequencies to Fast and Frugal Decision Trees (Laura Martignon, Oliver Vitouch, Masanori Takezawa and Malcolm R. Forster).
Chapter 11: More is not Always Better: The Benefits of Cognitive Limits (Ralph Hertwig and Peter M. Todd).
Chapter 12: Correspondence and Coherence: Indicators of Good Judgment in World Politics (Philip E. Tetlock).
Part III: Decision Making.
Chapter 13: Cognitive Mapping of Causal Reasoning in Strategic Decision Making (A. John Maule, Gerard P. Hodgkinson and Nicola J. Bown).
Chapter 14: Belief and Preference in Decision Under Uncertainty (Craig R. Fox and Kelly E. See).
Chapter 15: Medical Decision Scripts: Combining Cognitive Scripts and Judgment Strategies to Account Fully for Medical Decision Making (Robert M. Hamm).
Chapter 16: On the Assessment of Decision Quality: Considerations Regarding Utility, Conflict and Accountability (Gideon Keren and W¨andi Bruine de Bruin).