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Tomorrow's World. A Look at the Demographic and Socio–economic Structure of the World in 2032

  • ID: 2293106
  • Book
  • April 2013
  • Region: Global
  • 256 Pages
  • John Wiley and Sons Ltd

Why you should read this book

This book provides a global perspective of how the nature of demographics, household incomes, and expenditure patterns might be expected to change over the next twenty years. It is written without a particular bias (for example, to sell investments) and, as a result, provides insights into what the world might be like in the future, which is at odds with what is frequently promoted. For example:

  • While Japan is on average getting older, so is the changing nature of its employment practices such that the number of dependents per employed person remains one of the lowest in the world. It will have enough workers to support the aged population (and grow the economy) for the next 20 years.
  • India has a potential demographic dividend in terms of a large number of persons reaching working age. However, the economy will only benefit if they can find employment at the rate of 6 million extra jobs a year for the next two decades.
  • Globally, the youth market is not a growth segment. The total number of persons under the age of 25 years declines by 89 million persons in the next 20 years. There are few countries that are exceptions to this trend. The 40–plus age group provides much greater growth potential in both revenue and number of customers.
  • China′s workforce will inevitably decline in absolute numbers by 18% over the next 20 years (by 6% in the next decade). For this reason, claims that China′s total real GDP will grow at 8% per annum for the next decade are making heroic assumptions about productivity per worker.
  • North America, Western Europe, and Affluent Asia with 18% of the world′s population in 2012 account for 69% of total consumer spending. They are also expected to account for 41% of the growth in consumer spending over the next two decades.
  • While India has a poor standard of education relative to the world, 49% of its labour force in 2032 will enter the labour force sometime after 2012. Therefore, getting education right now will pay dividends. Otherwise, India′s economic and political future is at risk as a result of having a large, poorly skilled working–age population struggling to find employment.
  • As a result of the declining youth population, the nature of the household is changing already, 41% of all households in the world have no person less than 19 years of age in them. In the more affluent and older countries, it is 62% of households. By 2032, this will reach 47% and 68% respectively, meaning household consumption requirements will change dramatically.
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Acknowledgments ix

Introduction xi

Chapter 1 The Present Demographic Scenario 1

The Current State of Global Demography 2

Where Is Everyone? 6

Age Profile 7

The Household 8

Urbanisation 10

Education 11

Employment 13

Household Income 16

Summary 19

Chapter 2 Population Change by 2032 21

Migration, Births, and Death Rates 22

Death Rates 31

The Implications for Total Population Changes 32

The Changing Age Profile 34

Summary 38

Chapter 3 Tomorrow s Household 41

The Modern Household 41

The Changing Nature of Tomorrow s

Households 45

Employment and Dependency Ratios 48

Household Dependency Ratios 49

Summary 51

Chapter 4 Education and Productivity 53

The Education Index 54

The Future Demand for Education (and Standards) 56

Education s Impact on Society 60

Can India Catch Up? 62

Strategic Implications 63

Summary 65

Chapter 5 The Evolving Labour Force 67

Factors Influencing the Size and Value of the Labour Force 68

Strategic Implications 84

Summary 85

Chapter 6 Where in the World Is the Money? 87

Elephants in the Room 87

Usefulness of GDP for Evaluating the Potential of the Consumer Market of One Country Relative to Another 89

What Is the Best Way to Compare Expenditure among Countries? 91

So, Where Is the Money? 92

Relative Average Household Incomes per Capita in 2012 94

Where Will the Money Be in the Future? 96

The Future for Household Incomes 106

Deciding Whether to Save or Spend 109

Summary 111

Chapter 7 Distribution of Households by Income 113

Introduction 114

The Different Income Segments 116

Who Are the Middle Class? 127

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP): When Not to Use It 133

Strategic Implications 134

Summary 135

Chapter 8 The Changing Pattern of Consumer Expenditure 139

The Basic Relationship between Consumption and Affluence 140

Changes in Expenditure by Income Segment and Region 148

Age Group and Expenditure Where Should Brands Target Their Efforts in Future? 156

Strategic Implications 159

Summary 160

Chapter 9 The Health Tsunami 163

The Relationship between Ageing and Demand for Health Services 165

The Cost of Health Care 171

Summary 179

Chapter 10 Behind the Hype: The Future for China and India 181

China: A Special Case 182

The Future for India 195

Strategic Implications 204

Summary 205

Chapter 11 Conclusion 207

The Old Affluent Regions 208

Eastern Europe 212

South America 213

Developing Asia 215

North Africa and the Middle East 217

India 218

China 221

To Conclude 225

About the Author 227

Index 229

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Dr. Clint Laurent is the founder and Managing Director of Global Demographics Ltd., formerly Asian Demographics Ltd. Dr. Laurent moved to Hong Kong in 1976, initially with Hong Kong University and then as a director of Price Waterhouse, where he built up a market research and consultancy group. In the following years, Dr. Laurent founded and sold off two leading regional research companies Asia Market Intelligence Ltd. and then Asia Studies Ltd. before launching Asian Demographics in 1997. Dr. Laurent holds a PhD in marketing and statistics from Bath University in the UK.

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