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Scenarios for Success. Turning Insights in to Action. Edition No. 1

  • ID: 2325756
  • Book
  • October 2007
  • 434 Pages
  • John Wiley and Sons Ltd
Properly researched and intelligently deployed, scenario planning is today’s most powerful tool for understanding and preparing for an uncertain future. Yet it remains a niche approach, poorly understood by leaders at large. To bring it into the strategy mainstream, leaders need advice on how to turn concepts (scenarios) into actions (strategy).

Scenarios for Success delivers a unique and coherent account of the state of the scenario planning art. It is aimed particularly at those trying to implement its findings. Striking a balance between theory and practice, the contributors show how and why the core techniques of scenario thinking have endured and are still valuable, while bringing new tools and processes that keep scenario planning in touch with modern realities.

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List of Contributors ix

Preface xiii

Acknowledgments xv

Overview xvii

Part I Origins: Navigating with Invisible Islands 1

1 Conversations with Peter Schwartz and Napier Collyns 13
Bill Sharpe

2 Professional Dreamers: The Future in the Past of Scenario Planning 27
Cynthia Selin

Part II Scenarios In the World of Business 53

3 Scenarios and Innovation 75
Jan Verloop

4 Scenarios to Develop Strategic Options: A New Interactive Role for Scenarios in Strategy 89
Rafael Ramírez and Kees Van der Heijden

5 Deepening Futures with System Structure 121
Tony Hodgson and Bill Sharpe

6 From Signals to Decisions 145
Alexander Fink, Philip Hadridge and Gill Ringland

7 When Strangers Meet: Scenarios and the Legal Profession 173
Karim Medjad and Rafael Ramírez

8 The Power of Narrative 197
Lennart Nordfors

Part III Scenarios In the World of Management 217

9 Viewing Futures Network: Collaborative Learning and Innovation at Rabobank 235
Paul de Ruijter

10 Facilitating Scenario Development Process: Some Lessons for Facilitators 259
Ronald Bradfield

11 Appreciating the Future 279
Tony Hodgson

12 Building a Comprehensive Strategic Future Management System: A Future Map Approach 315
Don Heathfield

13 Acting on the Future 339
Andrew Curry

14 Backwards to the Future: Scenarios as Routines for Organizational Health 373
James Tansey

Concluding Remarks 391

References 395

Index 403

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Bill Sharpe
Kees van der Heijden The Strathclyde Graduate Business School.
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