"Stephen Roach′s prescient collection of insights and analyses, from his many years in Asia as one of the most experienced decoders of China′s political and economic trends, are cogent, valuable, and immensely helpful."
HENRY A. KISSINGER
PRAISE FOR STEPHEN ROACH ON THE NEXT ASIA
"Stephen Roach′s penetrating insights into the linkages between Asia and globalization past, present, and future should be required reading for policymakers, economists, and anyone else who has an interest in the future of the world economy."
JEFFREY E. GARTEN, Professor and former dean, Yale School of Management, and former Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade, Clinton administration
"If policymakers from the United States and China heed [Roach′s] words, the world will be a safer, more prosperous place."
BILL BRADLEY, former United States Senator
"This book presents a fresh Asian perspective in understanding the root cause of the global financial crisis."
LIU MINGKANG, Chairman, China Banking Regulatory Commission
"Stephen Roach′s articles on Asia give the reader an authoritative and highly readable overview of the many fascinating aspects of Asia′s new emergence on the global scene."
MONTEK AHLUWALIA, Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission, Government of India
"Debate rages over whether Asia has become the new engine of growth in a post–crisis global economy. Stephen Roach challenges this presumption and provides timely insight as to what China and the rest of Asia need to accomplish in order to step into this important role."
LAURA D′ANDREA TYSON, Professor, Haas School of Business, UC Berkeley, and former chair, White House National Economic Council, Clinton administration
"Roach has enjoyed a ringside seat in Asia through the crisis. The combination of economic and business analysis gives him a unique perspective."
HOWARD DAVIES, Director, London School of Economics, and former executive chairman, UK Financial Services Authority
CHAPTER 1 A WORLD IN CRISIS.
A Subprime Outlook for the Global Economy.
Save the Day.
Coping with a Different Recession.
Davos Diary: 2008.
Double Bubble Trouble.
Even When the Worst Is Over Watch Out for Aftershocks.
Pitfalls in a Postbubble World.
Panic of 2008: Enough Scapegoating.
Global Fix for a Global Crisis.
Changing the Fed′s Policy Mandate.
An Early Leadership Opportunity for Barack Obama.
Dying of Consumption.
Uncomfortable Truths about Our World after the Bubble.
A Postbubble Global Business Cycle.
America′s Japan Syndrome.
After the Era of Excess.
Same Old, Same Old.
CHAPTER 2 THE GLOBALIZATION DEBATE.
The Battleground of Globalization.
The Global Delta.
Beggars Can′t Be Choosers.
Perils of a Different Globalization.
Bad Advice and a New Global Architecture.
Doha Doesn′t Matter.
Global Speed Trap.
Hitting a BRIC Wall?
Global Comeback First Japan, Now Germany.
Labor versus Capital.
From Globalization to Localization.
Unprepared for Globalization.
The Currency Foil.
The Shifting Mix of Global Saving.
CHAPTER 3 CHINESE REBALANCING.
China′s Rebalancing Challenge.
A Commodity–Lite China.
Scale and the Chinese Policy Challenge.
China′s Great Contradiction.
Soft Landing Made in China?
The Great Chinese Profits Debate.
China Goes for Quality.
Two Birds with One Stone.
Unstable, Unbalanced, Uncoordinated, and Unsustainable.
China′s Global Challenge.
Consumer–Led Growth for China.
China′s Macro Imperatives.
CHAPTER 4 PAN–ASIAN CHALLENGES.
The Next Asia.
Rebalancing Made in Japan?
From Beijing to Dubai.
A Tale of Two Asias.
Kim′s Boost to Globalization.
Japan′s Missing Link.
India on the Move.
The Cranes of Dubai.
Asian Decoupling Unlikely.
The Korea Test.
Asia′s Policy Trap.
Complacency Asian Style.
The End of the Beginning.
Another Asian Wake–Up Call.
India s Virtuous Cycle.
Risks of an Asian Relapse.
CHAPTER 5 U.S.–CHINA TENSIONS.
A Slippery Slope.
Past the Point of No Return.
Debating U.S.–China Trade Policy.
Who′s Subsidizing Whom?
Protectionist Threats Then and Now.
The Ghost of Reed Smoot.
China′s Pace, America′s Angst.
The Politics of Trade Frictions.
A Wake–Up Call for the United States and China: Stress Testing a Symbiotic Relationship.
About the Author.
STEPHEN S. ROACH has been a thought leader on Wall Street for over thirty years. He is currently a member of the faculty of Yale University and Non–Executive Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. For the bulk of his career, he served as Morgan Stanley′s chief economist, heading up a highly regarded team of economists around the world. His recent research on globalization, the emergence of China and India, trade policy, and the capital market implications of global imbalances has appeared widely in the international media and in testimony before the U.S. Congress. Prior to joining Morgan Stanley in 1982, he worked in senior capacities at Morgan Guaranty Trust Company and the Federal Reserve Board in Washington D.C. He holds a PhD in economics from New York University and was a research fellow at the Brookings Institution. He is currently recovering from chronic jet lag syndrome after having logged 1.2 million air miles during his recent three–year stint as Hong Kong based Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia.