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Country Risk Service Congo (Brazzaville) 2nd Quarter

  • ID: 2533845
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Democratic Republic of Congo, Republic of Congo
  • 20 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The sovereign risk rating remains at CCC, although the score has improved by 1 point to 61. Following sustained reform efforts and fiscal consolidation, the government is now estimated to be running a fiscal surplus. However, Congo has a large external debt stock-and the risks surrounding this are exacerbated by the opacity of the debt stock, weak institutions and low foreign reserves.

The currency risk rating remains at BB, although the score has worsened by 1 point to 49. Bank credit to the private sector is falling, as economic growth, though recovering, remains sluggish, particularly outside the oil sector. Most export receipts come from oil, and, with global oil prices on a downward trend, this has also weighed on the score slightly. That said, the CFA franc is pegged to the euro and guaranteed by the French Treasury, which provides an element of currency stability.

Banking sector risk remains CCC-rated, although the score has deteriorated by 1 point to 61, because of a fall in bank credit to the private sector. The non-performing loan ratio is high, having risen substantially during the recession years of 2016-17. Government arrears to private suppliers are another problem, as affected firms then fall into loan arrears themselves. This is a major drag on the rating. On the upside, the net foreign asset position has improved slightly.
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Country Risk Service Congo (Brazzaville) 2nd Quarter

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Rating outlook

Central scenario for 2019-20: Political stability

Central scenario for 2019-20: Election watch

Central scenario for 2019-20: International relations

Central scenario for 2019-20: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2019-20: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2019-20: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2019-20: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2019-20: Inflation

Central scenario for 2019-20: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2019-20: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service
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