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Country Risk Service Côte d'Ivoire 2nd Quarter

  • ID: 2556050
  • Country Profile
  • June 2020
  • Region: Global
  • 26 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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Sovereign risk remains B-rated. An uptick in foreign reserves and the stock relative to gross financing needs has worked to offset emerging vulnerabilities related to the global coronavirus shock, which includes slowing economic growth, a widening fiscal deficit and a larger external imbalance.

The currency risk rating remains at BB. External imbalances (which derive partly from the use of the CFA franc, which is pegged to the euro) continue to hold back the rating. Côte d'Ivoire is planning to adopt a new regional currency, the eco, in July, in which the current exchange rate to the euro would be maintained. The ending of formal French oversight of the currency creates risks for the peg's convertibility, but in principle the switch to the eco is a rebranding of the CFA franc.

Banking sector risk remains at BB. A healthy net foreign-asset position, relatively stable inflation and positive real interest rates support the rating. However, asset quality was weak before the coronavirus shock, and the evolution of bank lending in recent years indicates a vulnerability to what is expected to be an emerging economic downturn.
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Country Risk Service Côte d'Ivoire 2nd Quarter

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Currency risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook
Foreign-exchange regime

Banking sector risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Generic risks
Political risk assessment
Economic structure risk assessment

Country risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2020-24: Political stability

Central scenario for 2020-24: Election watch

Central scenario for 2020-24: International relations

Central scenario for 2020-24: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2020-24: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2020-24: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2020-24: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2020-24: Inflation

Central scenario for 2020-24: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2020-24: External sector

Central scenario for 2020-24: External financing requirement

Central scenario for 2020-24: External debt

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service
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