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Digital TV Sub-Saharan Africa Forecasts

  • ID: 2728635
  • Report
  • Region: Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 225 Pages
  • Digital TV Research
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Satellite TV accounted for 92% of the 2014 pay TV revenues.
Nearly two-thirds of TV homes (36.2 million) took digital signals by end-2015, up from 18.7% (7.9 million) in 2010. Complete digital transition was achieved in Gabon, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda by end-2015. This count will increase from six countries at end-2015 to 11 by end-2016. Digital TV penetration will reach 99.9% in 35 forecast countries by 2021 - or 74.7 million homes.

About two-thirds (50.95 million) of TV households will take DTT (pay and free-to-air combined) as their primary TV signal in 2021, up from only 1.4% (0.59 million) at end-2010. By 2021, 14.85 million - nearly a fifth of TV households - will be primary pay DTT and 36.10 million free-to-air DTT (or 48.3% of TV homes).

DTT will challenge satellite as the top pay TV platform by 2021. In fact, satellite TV will only grow from 19.3% of TV households in 2015 to 21.2% by 2021, whereas pay DTT will rocket from 10.2% to 19.9% over the same period.

Of the 16.91 million pay TV subscribers at end-2015, 10.66 million were pay satellite TV and 5.64 million pay DTT. The pay total will more than double to 33.23 million by 2021, with satellite TV contributing 15.88 million and pay DTT another 14.85 million.

South Africa supplied 5.95 million of the 2015 regional pay TV subs; growing to 8.62 million by 2021. Nigeria will close in on South Africa; increasing from 3.63 million in 2015 to 7.52 million in 2021.

Published in January 2016, the 225-page PDF and excel report comes in six parts:

- Executive summary and regional forecasts, with handy comparison tables to reveal the best growth prospects;
- Chapter on the main pan-regional players: StarTimes, DStv, GOtv and Canal Plus Afrique;
- Regional forecasts summary from 2010 to 2021 by platform, by household penetration, by pay TV subscribers and by pay TV revenues;
- Top-line forecasts (population, population per household, households and TV households) for 42 countries;
- Country profiles for 35 territories;
- Detailed country forecasts for 35 nations.
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Forecasts (2010-2021) contain the following detail for each of the 35 countries:

Senegal digital TV forecasts:

Households (000)
TV households (000)
Digital cable subs (000)
Analog cable subs (000)
Pay IPTV subscribers (000)
Pay digital satellite TV subs (000)
Digital free satellite TV homes (000)
Analog satellite TV households (000)
Analog terrestrial households (000)
Primary FTA DTT households (000)
Primary Pay DTT households (000)
Digital homes (000)
Analog homes (000)
Pay TV subscribers (000)
Total DTT homes (000)

Digital cable subs/TV HH
Analog cable subs/TV HH
Pay IPTV subs/TV HH
Pay satellite TV/TV HH
Digital free satellite TV/TV HH
Analog satellite TV/TV HH
Analog terrestrial/TVHH
Primary pay DTT/TV HH
Digital/TV HH
Analog/TV HH
Pay TV Subs/TV HH

Stand-alone digital cable subs (000)
Dual-play digital cable subs (000)
Triple-play digital cable subs (000)
Stand-alone pay IPTV subs (000)
Dual-play pay IPTV subs (000)
Triple-play pay IPTV subs (000)

Revenues (US$ million):
Stand-alone digital cable revs
Dual-play digital cable TV revenues
Triple-play digital cable TV
Digital cable TV subs revenues
Digital cable TV on-demand revs
Digital cable TV revenues
Analog cable TV subs revs
Cable TV revenues

Stand-alone IPTV revenues
Dual-play IPTV revenues
Triple-play IPTV revenues
IPTV subscription revenues
IPTV on-demand revenues
IPTV revenues

Satellite TV subscription revenues
Satellite TV on-demand revenues
Satellite TV revenues

DTT subscription revs
DTT on-demand revenues
DTT revenues

Subscription revenues
On-demand revenues
Total revenues

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU - US$):
Stand-alone digital cable subs
Dual-play digital cable TV subs
Triple-play digital cable TV subs
Average digital cable (subs & VOD)
Analog cable TV subs
Stand-alone IPTV subs
Dual-play IPTV subs
Triple-play IPTV subs
Average IPTV (subs and VOD)
Pay satellite TV (subs)
Pay satellite TV (subs and PPV)
Pay DTT (subs)
Pay DTT (subs and PPV)
Average monthly ARPU

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2015 was yet another momentous year for television in Sub-Saharan Africa. Most countries missed the ITU’s analog switch-off deadline of June, but DTT, especially pay DTT, made huge gains. And there is much more to come, partly as Canal Plus unveils its TNT Afrique DTT platform in Francophone countries.

However, the number of pay satellite TV subscribers climbed by a relatively low 7.4% in 2015. This was partly due to greater platform choice created by DTT and partly due to economic woes in some countries.

Available in more than 50 countries, DStv had 2.24 million subscribers outside South Africa by September 2015; down from 2.56 million six months earlier and down from 2.36 million a year earlier. This research estimates that this total fell to 2.16 million by end-2015, with 2016 also expected to be tough.
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- Africa
- Angola
- Benin
- Botswana
- Burkina
- Burundi
- Cameroon
- Chad
- Congo
- Cote d’Ivoire
- DR
- Eq. Guinea
- Ethiopia
- Faso
- Gabon
- Gambia
- Ghana
- Guinea
- Kenya
- Leone
- Liberia
- Madagascar
- Malawi
- Mali
- Mozambique
- Namibia
- Niger
- Nigeria
- Rep Congo
- Rwanda
- Senegal
- Sierra
- South
- Tanzania
- Togo
- Uganda
- Zambia
- Zimbabwe
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