In his challenging book Fatal Accidents, the author, in order to explain this paradox, proposes a model of human behaviour in which the reduction in fatal accident rates results from a development of skill, such that the population becomes progressively more adept at avoiding mishaps. Such changes are subconsciously and collectively regulated by the population concerned - for example, by drivers in the case of road transport - and are made possible by advances in science and technology. A similar model is applicable to the reduction of general mortality rates, to economic growth and to population growth. The future cannot be predicted, but at present safety is improving at a satisfactory rate.
- Examines fatal accident trends in industry and transport
- Proposes that fatal accident rates diminish over time as a result of skill development
- Observes the correlation between accidents and specific measures of human activity, such as national productivity
Fatality and loss rates in transport and industry
Mortality from all causes
Analysing historical data: Characteristics and methods
Some outstanding questions.