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Country Risk Service Côte d'Ivoire 1st Quarter

  • ID: 2760425
  • Country Profile
  • March 2020
  • Region: Global
  • 26 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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Sovereign risk remains B-rated. The rating is supported by good access to financing and robust economic growth. However, many challenges remain, including Côte d'Ivoire's twin fiscal and current-account deficits, rising debt stock, the opacity of its public financial management and simmering political tensions ahead of the 2020 presidential election.

The currency risk rating remains at BB. External imbalances (which derive partly from the use of the CFA franc, which is pegged to the euro) continue to hold back the rating. Côte d'Ivoire is planning to adopt a new regional currency in June, in which the current exchange rate to the euro would be maintained. Changes in currency have risks attached, but if its adoption is kept within the existing monetary union, of which Côte d'Ivoire is a member, the process should be manageable.

Banking sector risk remains at BB. This is underpinned by reasonably sound credit management, a high level of provisioning and improving (albeit still fairly thin) capital buffers. However, a still high (but slowly declining) non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is acting as a weight.
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Country Risk Service Côte d'Ivoire 1st Quarter

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Currency risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook
Foreign-exchange regime

Banking sector risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Generic risks
Political risk assessment
Economic structure risk assessment

Country risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2020-24: Political stability

Central scenario for 2020-24: Election watch

Central scenario for 2020-24: International relations

Central scenario for 2020-24: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2020-24: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2020-24: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2020-24: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2020-24: Inflation

Central scenario for 2020-24: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2020-24: External sector

Central scenario for 2020-24: External financing requirement

Central scenario for 2020-24: External debt

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service
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