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Country Risk Service Côte d'Ivoire 1st Quarter

  • ID: 2760425
  • Country Profile
  • March 2021
  • Region: Global
  • 29 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
Sovereign risk remains B-rated, with a 2-point improvement in the score. Despite a drop in exports, foreign-exchange reserves have swelled, owing to budget support from the IMF and Eurobond issuances, providing the sovereign with protection against an external liquidity crunch. Historically strong economic growth has kept the external debt/GDP ratio low, despite relatively heavy international borrowing.

The currency risk rating is unchanged at BB, but the score has improved by 2 points. External imbalances (which derive partly from the use of the CFA franc, which is pegged to the euro) continue to hold back the rating. Export earnings depend heavily on raw cocoa exports, as well as some oil, leaving Côte d'Ivoire exposed to swings in commodity prices.

Banking sector risk remains BB-rated, despite a 1-point weakening of the score. Reform efforts by the authorities strengthened the banking sector ahead of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. However, the sector faces an unstable macroeconomic environment, which could weigh on asset quality, and the capital buffers of some state-owned lenders are still thin.
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Country Risk Service Côte d'Ivoire 1st Quarter

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Currency risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook
Foreign-exchange regime

Banking sector risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Generic risks
Political risk assessment
Economic structure risk assessment

Country risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2021-25: Political stability

Central scenario for 2021-25: Election watch

Central scenario for 2021-25: International relations

Central scenario for 2021-25: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2021-25: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2021-25: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2021-25: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2021-25: Inflation

Central scenario for 2021-25: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2021-25: External sector

Central scenario for 2021-25: External financing requirement

Central scenario for 2021-25: External debt

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service
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