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Country Risk Service Uruguay 1st Quarter

  • ID: 2774602
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Uruguay
  • 26 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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Sovereign risk remains at BB, but a wide fiscal deficit has lifted public debt/GDP to 70%. Proactive liability management and some fiscal improvements will anchor the rating. The main domestic risk remains a failure to achieve political consensus on fiscal consolidation after the October general election.

Currency risk remains at BBB. After several weakening episodes in 2018 in line with other emerging currencies, especially Argentina, the Uruguayan peso has been fairly stable so far in 2019. High reserve ratios anchor the rating, but high inflation and potential adverse developments regarding Argentina and financing conditions for emerging markets in general may weaken the score.

The banking sector risk remains at BB. The system is well capitalised, liquidity ratios are healthy and non-performing loans are modest. But given the system's still-high dollarisation levels, potential currency weakening could hit the score.
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Country Risk Service Uruguay 1st Quarter

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Currency risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook
Foreign-exchange regime

Banking sector risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Generic risks
Political risk assessment
Economic structure risk assessment

Country risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2019-23: Political stability

Central scenario for 2019-23: Election watch

Central scenario for 2019-23: International relations

Central scenario for 2019-23: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2019-23: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2019-23: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2019-23: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2019-23: Inflation

Central scenario for 2019-23: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2019-23: External sector

Central scenario for 2019-23: External financing requirement

Central scenario for 2019-23: External debt

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service
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