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Decision Analysis for Management Judgment. 5th Edition

  • ID: 2785579
  • Book
  • April 2014
  • 496 Pages
  • John Wiley and Sons Ltd
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In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis has a major role to play in helping decision makers gain insight into the problems they face. Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It considers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. The text is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation.

The fifth edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments and research in the field.

- Includes a new chapter (Chapter 17) on combining scenario planning with decision analysis.
- Discusses the distinction between good and bad decisions and good and bad outcomes.
- Extends the discussion of second–order stochastic dominance by introducing a new, simple procedure to help decision makers determine whether stochastic dominance is present.
- Coverage of the Delphi method in Chapter 13 has been significantly extended and now includes research–based, step–by–step guides on how to apply the method for maximum effectiveness.
- Discussion on decision framing in Chapter 15 now includes an introduction to prospect theory, which is probably the most well–known theory of how people make decisions when they face risks.
- Scenario planning has been extended to include a case study detailing how the method was applied in the English National Health Service. The authors also contrast scenario planning with Nassim Taleb s recently published ideas about antifragility in decision making.

The book is intended for MBA students and business and management undergraduates who are not specialist mathematicians but it will also appeal to practising managers. The companion website can be found at: <a href="[external URL]
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Foreword Lawrence D. Phillips vii

Preface ix

Chapter 1 Introduction 1

Chapter 2 How people make decisions involving multiple objectives 15

Chapter 3 Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART 33

Chapter 4 Decisions involving multiple objectives: alternatives to SMART 65

Chapter 5 Introduction to probability 95

Chapter 6 Decision making under uncertainty 117

Chapter 7 Decision trees and influence diagrams 161

Chapter 8 Applying simulation to decision problems 187

Chapter 9 Revising judgments in the light of new information 221

Chapter 10 Heuristics and biases in probability assessment 245

Chapter 11 Methods for eliciting probabilities 275

Chapter 12 Risk and uncertainty management 297

Chapter 13 Decisions involving groups of individuals 309

Chapter 14 Resource allocation and negotiation problems 337

Chapter 15 Decision framing and cognitive inertia 361

Chapter 16 Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty 387

Chapter 17 Combining scenario planning with decision analysis 423

Chapter 18 Alternative decision–support systems and conclusions 437

Suggested answers to selected questions 469

Index 475

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Paul Goodwin
George Wright
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