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Country Risk Service Congo (Brazzaville) 3rd Quarter

  • ID: 2883585
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Democratic Republic of Congo, Republic of Congo
  • 20 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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Congo's sovereign risk rating remains at CCC. Higher oil prices are having a positive impact on Congo's economic growth, as well as on the fiscal and current accounts. These developments are also narrowing the overall external financing requirement. However, the state's ability to borrow at an affordable rate will continue to be hindered by a lack of transparency about the size and composition of the public debt stock, as well as domestic arrears to suppliers.

Currency risk remains B-rated. The CFA franc is pegged to the euro and guaranteed by the French Treasury, which provides an element of currency stability. Congo's estimated import cover, at two months, has deteriorated marginally since our previous assessment, but is expected to rise to 2.3 months at end-2018, which lends support to the peg.

Banking sector risk remains CCC-rated. Growth in credit as a proportion of GDP has slowed compared with three years ago, when the financial system was displaying hallmarks of a credit bubble. Despite these improvements, the non-performing loan ratio (which has risen over the past two years because of the impact of government arrears to private suppliers, who then themselves fall into payment arrears) remains a concern.
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Country Risk Service Congo (Brazzaville) 3rd Quarter

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk

Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Rating outlook

Central scenario for 2018-19: Political stability

Central scenario for 2018-19: Election watch

Central scenario for 2018-19: International relations

Central scenario for 2018-19: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2018-19: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2018-19: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2018-19: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2018-19: Inflation

Central scenario for 2018-19: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2018-19: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service
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