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Country Risk Service Yemen 4th Quarter Updater

  • ID: 3059603
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Yemen
  • 21 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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Yemen will run wide fiscal and current-account deficits, owing to a collapse in oil production and plummeting public revenue on the back of the ongoing civil war. As a result, the deteriorating fiscal position and the country's political chaos will increasingly lead Yemen to default on its debt repayments. In the interim (and even after the war), the country will remain heavily reliant on foreign aid.

The rapid depletion of the Central Bank of Yemen's foreign reserves has seriously undermined the country's ability to prop up the Yemeni riyal, meaning a further devaluation is expected in 2017. The unofficial exchange rate differs markedly from the peg.

Banks' growing exposure to the fragile public finances is a concern. The ongoing war has led to an uptick in non-performing loans to private-sector borrowers, as well as an escalating liquidity crisis as local and foreign depositors withdraw funds from the banks.
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Country Risk Service Yemen 4th Quarter Updater

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2017-21: Political stability

Central scenario for 2017-21: Election watch

Central scenario for 2017-21: International relations

Central scenario for 2017-21: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2017-21: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2017-21: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2017-21: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2017-21: Inflation

Central scenario for 2017-21: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2017-21: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service
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