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Country Risk Service Yemen 1st Quarter

  • ID: 3111253
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Yemen
  • 26 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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Sovereign risk remains D-rated, despite the impact of rising grant inflows from Saudi Arabia in 2018. Risks remain heavily weighted to the downside. Yemen will run fiscal deficits in 2019-20 and given the country's political chaos, The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that Yemen is currently defaulting on most-or all-of its debt repayments, will remain heavily reliant on foreign aid and will quickly deplete what foreign aid does come in.

The currency risk rating is unchanged at C. It is still undermined by the lack of consistent export revenue that is needed to boost reserves and support the currency. Currency depreciation and more general currency instability will persist.

Banking risk remains C-rated. Banks' exposure to the fragile public finances is a concern. The ongoing war has led to rising non-performing loans, as well as an escalating liquidity crisis as local and foreign depositors withdraw bank deposits.
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Country Risk Service Yemen 1st Quarter

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Currency risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook
Foreign-exchange regime

Banking sector risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Generic risks
Political risk assessment
Economic structure risk assessment

Country risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2019-23: Political stability

Central scenario for 2019-23: Election watch

Central scenario for 2019-23: International relations

Central scenario for 2019-23: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2019-23: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2019-23: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2019-23: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2019-23: Inflation

Central scenario for 2019-23: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2019-23: External sector

Central scenario for 2019-23: External financing requirement

Central scenario for 2019-23: External debt

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service
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