Mexico Smart Grid: Market Forecast (2015 - 2025)

  • ID: 3429661
  • Report
  • Region: Mexico
  • 108 Pages
  • Northeast Group, LLC
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Mexico is steadily progressing in developing one of the largest smart grid markets in both Latin America and among all emerging market countries. Since the second volume of this study was published back in 2013, Mexico has begun developing a smart grid regulatory framework and announced tenders for over 2 million AMI meters. Large-scale smart grid investment is now expected in the near-to-medium term. This will provide American, international and domestic Mexican smart grid vendors with numerous opportunities to expand in the country.

Mexico’s smart grid development is driven by both regulatory incentives and business case benefits. Overall transmission and distribution (T&D) losses and electricity consumption rates are average for emerging markets. However, in some cities theft rates are among the highest in the world and in other areas average electricity consumption rivals levels seen in developed countries. Meanwhile, slumping energy supplies and high carbon emissions have vaulted energy reform to the top of the political agenda. Recent reforms enacted by President Peña Nieto will expand the number of small-scale generators in the electricity market, meaning that Mexico will need a more flexible and resilient grid. 

The transmission and distribution segments remain entirely controlled by a single state-owned utility (CFE), and ultimately CFE will dictate the pace and scale of smart grid deployments in Mexico. CFE has set deployment targets, and the regulator CRE is nearing completion of a regulatory framework. CFE’s monopoly may lead to some inefficiencies, and the pace of rollouts could vary. But ultimately, the single-utility structure should ensure that once deployments begin, they will be streamlined and spread quickly throughout the country. By 2025, Mexico will have deployed smart meters to 74% of its customers and added large-scale investments in distribution automation, wide area measurement, home energy management, information technology, and battery storage.

Key questions answered in this study:

- What smart grid tenders have been announced and who has won the most recent tenders?
- Which regulations and incentives are being considered for a smart grid roadmap?
- How do recent energy sector reforms affect smart grid?
- Which local vendors are active and who are they likely to partner with?

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i. Executive Summary
i.i What’s new in 2015?
ii. Methodology

1. Introduction
1.1 What is smart grid?
1.2 How has smart grid been used elsewhere in the world?

2. Mexico smart grid snapshot
2.1 Current situation
2.2 Regional comparison
2.3 Electricity industry structure
2.4 Smart grid drivers
2.5 Smart grid barriers
3. Current smart grid regulations
3.1 CRE smart grid roadmap
3.2 CFE smart grid plans
3.3 Associated energy policies
3.4 International smart grid coordination
3.5 Smart grid’s role in Mexican energy policy

4. Current smart grid activity
4.1 AMI
4.2 Wide area measurement
4.3 Distribution automation

5. Smart grid market forecast

6. Vendors
6.1 Domestic vendors
6.2 International vendors active in AMI projects
6.3 International vendors active in DA projects

7. Appendix
7.1 List of companies covered in this report
7.2 List of acronyms

List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables:

Mexico smart grid: key takeaways
Mexico smart grid: leading indicators
Recent smart metering tenders in Mexico
Recent smart metering tenders in Mexico (already awarded)
Recent smart metering tenders in Mexico (not yet awarded)
CRE regulatory timeframe
Smart grid partnerships between Mexican and international vendors
Smart grid market forecast (cumulative)
Smart grid market forecast data
Northeast Group smart grid forecasting model
Figure 1.1: Smart grid value chain
Figure 1.2: Smart grid model highlighting focus in Mexico
Table 1.1: Benefits of AMI in Mexico
Table 1.2: Demand response options
Figure 1.3: Global smart grid activity
Figure 1.4: Cumulative AMI investment by region up to 2015
Figure 1.5: Cumulative DA investment by region up to 2015
Figure 1.6: Cumulative AMI investment by region up to 2025
Figure 1.7: Cumulative DA investment by region up to 2025
Table 2.1: Key indicators in Mexico
Figure 2.1: Current installed base of AMI meters in Latin America
Figure 2.2: Emerging markets smart meter potential
Figure 2.3: Per-capita electricity consumption
Figure 2.4: Per-capita CO emissions
Figure 2.5: Projected GDP growth
Figure 2.6: Global electricity prices
Figure 2.7: Trends in electricity prices in Mexico
Figure 2.8: The divisions of CFE
Figure 2.9: Electricity generation mix in Mexico
Table 2.2: Generation projects currently under construction
Table 2.3 IPP wind projects in operation
Figure 2.11: T&D losses in Latin America
Figure 2.12: T&D losses in Mexico
Table 2.4: Consumer appliance ownership in Mexico
Figure 2.12: Annual manufacturing sales losses due to power outages
Figure 2.13: Renewable energy potential in Mexico
Table 2.5: Smart grid drivers and barriers in Mexico
Figure 2.14: Ten-year price per kWh of AMI deployments
Figure 3.1: Government bodies involved in electricity regulation in Mexico
Table 3.1: CRE smart grid regulatory recommendations
Table 3.2: CRE smart grid incentive recommendations
Figure 3.2: Proposed smart grid goals and tasks at CFE
Table 3.3: Mexican decrees and legislation affecting smart grid
Box 3.1: Political risk in Mexico
Figure 4.1: Sites of major smart metering projects in Mexico
Figure 4.2: Impact of smart metering project in Coecillo
Figure 4.3: Substation and distribution automation in Mexico
Figure 5.1: Mexico smart grid forecast
Table 5.1: Mexico smart grid forecast data
Figure 5.2: Mexico smart meter penetration rate
Figure 5.3: Annual AMI deployments
Figure 5.4: AMI cost breakdown
Figure 5.5: AMI forecast by segment
Table 5.2: AMI forecast data by segment
Figure 5.6: DA forecast by segment
Table 5.3: DA forecast data by segment
Figure 5.7: HEM forecast by segment
Table 5.4: HEM forecast data by segment
Figure 5.8: IT forecast by segment
Table 5.5: IT forecast data by segment
Figure 6.1: Vendors active in Mexico
Figure 6.2: Market share of leading AMI vendors in Mexico
Figure 6.3: Market share of leading AMI communications vendors in Mexico
Table 6.1: Domestic electricity sector vendors in Mexico
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