With a ready supply of IPO-related cash still on hand, publicly traded vendors are ramping up international operations, further refining or innovating R & D inside their already enterprise grade tech platforms, and adjusting their customer billing pitches to appeal to a broad spectrum of publishers running operations on very tight budgets.
Excluding Facebook, desktop/cross-platform vendors are expected to capture 56.5% of the marketplace in 2016. Including the Facebook, mobile/cross-channel adtech will account for 64% of the global digital video/mobile and cross-channel adtech market.
This revenue growth analysis, Digital Video and Mobile AdTech Growth 2016 - 2018 Post M & A Consolidation: Forecasts for Publicly Traded, Independent/VC-backed and Acquired Vendors, is based on extensive primary research and financial modeling developed by AccuStream Research that frames a $26 billion global marketplace in 2016 (excluding Facebook). A $41 billion global marketplace is indicated when including Facebook audience platform.
A 2014 - 2018 CAGR analysis of publicly traded vendors indicates a 35% revenue expansion is expected to capture 20% of total net revenue in 2016.
Publicly traded digital video and mobile adtech companies are forecast to generate $8.9 billion in run-rate revenue (minus any media related costs), with 67% weighted toward mobile vendors operating globally (excluding Facebook).
When analysis includes Facebook, mobile is poised to capture 87.5% of the $24.1 billion in total revenue generated by publicly traded digital video and mobile adtech platforms and vendors.
The majority of Facebook revenue is generated on the mobile platform (78% in 2015), with approximately 88.5% of daily active users on that platform
Supported by ample supply of venture capital, independent vendors are estimated to grow revenues by 33.2% through 2018 (calculated from 2014) and book 22% of total net revenue in 2016.
Independent vendors (mobile and desktop) are forecast to expand revenue by 32% in 2016, 28.6% in 2018, and frame a market segment worth $11.7 billion, or the equivalent of $22+ billion in potential M & A based on deals finalized for ad technology from the period 2006 through 2015, with take-out multiples analyzed as an integral component to this research package.
Through 2015, a total of $17 billion has been paid out for video, mobile, cross-channel and display-centric adtech solutions.
Across all M & A transactions, multiples have averaged 2.47x topline revenue, and 13.93x gross profit (i.e. revenue minus media-related costs associated with ad spend).
The desktop/cross-channel segment has averaged 2.62x revenue, while mobile/cross-channel adtech deals have averaged 2.0x revenue.
The publicly traded group of platforms, companies and vendors is on course to deliver 41.4% growth in topline (net) revenue in 2016 (excluding Facebook), however, topline revenue multiples averaged a much more modest .6x run-rate revenue in 2015, when factoring net cash out of market capitalization.
Acquired video and mobile adtech solutions vendors are currently estimated at 29.6% comparable growth and forecast to collect 58% of total net revenue in 2016. Those adtech assets are expected to capture 39% of the market in 2016, 35% by 2018 (excluding Facebook).
Facebook generates revenue in relative parity across international markets, and in the U.S., and is the most powerful digital audience platform operating today. The company has enhanced its core technology capabilities and monetization options through targeted acquisition, including the video adtech vendor LiveRail.
Initial rounds of consolidation (i.e. acquisition, mergers and company closings), plus earlier entrants tapping into public equity markets for expansion capital still leaves independent/VC-backed firms owning approximately 27% - 30% of the market.
Independent/VC-backed adtech vendors are growing their revenue base and remain attractive acquisition targets, estimated to book 26.7% of the market in 2016, 27.6% by 2018.
We expect additional rounds of consolidation to take place, as well as new money and entrants coming into the market.
Acquired, Independent/Vc-Backed And Publicly Traded Digital Video And Mobile Adtech Vendors 2016 - 2018: Platform Revenue Analysis
- Post Take-Out/ M & A Consolidation: A Flourishing $26 Billion Global Vendor Marketplace In 2016 (Excluding Facebook)
Combined Desktop, Cross-Channel And Mobile Video Adtech Platform Growth (W/O Facebook)
Combined Desktop, Cross-Channel And Mobile Video Adtech Platform Growth (W/ Facebook)
Publicly Traded Digital Video And Mobile Adtech Vendors Forecast To Build Revenue Base And Share Of Total Market Through 2018
Combined Mobile/Desktop/Cross-Channel Video Adtech Revenue By Ownership Profile: 2009 - 2018
Publicly Traded, Independent/Vc-Backed And Acquired Digital Video/Mobile Adtech 2009 - 2018: Revenue By Ownership Profile
Facebook's Audience Platform Is A Revenue Leader Across The Digital Adtech Ecosystem
Publicly Traded Digital Video And Mobile Adtech Revenue Projections And Market Share: 2009 - 2018
Independent/Vc-Backed Digital Video, Cross-Channel And Mobile Adtech Revenue Projections And Market Share: 2009 - 2018
Acquired/Post M & A Digital Video, Cross-Channel And Mobile Adtech Revenue Projections And Market Share: 2009 - 2018
Robust Video And Mobile Adtech M & A Exit Valuations Reflect The Monetization Requisites Of Publishers
Acquisitors Are Buying Market Share And Technology
The Period 2005 - 2015 Produced $17.3 Billion In M & A Digital Video And Mobile Adtech Deals
Digital Video And Mobile Adtech Vendor And Platform M & A, Transaction Value With Takeout Multiples: 2006 - 2015
Digital Video And Mobile Adtech Platform M & A, Trasaction Value And Comparable Takeout Multiples: 2006 - 2015
Net Cash Advantage: Publicly Traded Digital Video Adtech Vendors Forecast To Deliver 35% CAGR Through 2018
Digital Video Adtech Asset Ownership, Growth Rates, Revenue And Market Share: 2007 - 2018
Digital Video Adtech Vendor Ownership And Core Solution Profiles 2016
The Digital Video Adtech Ecosystem: Market Position And Ownership Analysis 2015 - 2018
The Digital Video Adtech Ecosystem Alignment: Acquired Solutions And Vendor Growth Analysis 2015 - 2018
The Digital Video Adtech Ecosystem Alignment: Market Position And Independent Vendor Growth Analysis 2015 - 2018
The Digital Video Adtech Ecosystem Alignment: Publicly Traded Vendor Growth Analysis 2015 - 2018
Publicly Traded Mobile Adtech Solutions Vendors Lead The Market's Growth Through 2018
- The Market's Fundamentals Are Strong When Including And Excluding The Leading Audience Platform, Facebook
Mobile Adtech Marketplaces Are Forecast At $11.4 Billion In Net Platform Revenue In 2016
Mobile Adtech Market Positions: Comparable Growth Forecasts By Ownership And Market Maturity Profile 2009 - 2018
Market Share By Ownership Profile: Mobile Adtech 2009 - 2018
Mobile Adtech Solutions Support All Formats, Cross-Channels, Ad Serving, Data Analytics, Network Platforms, Private And Public Programmatic And Direct Inventory Management
Mobile Adtech Market Positions And Ownership Profiles 2016
Mobile Adtech Market Positions: Growth Forecasts Of Acquired Vendors 2009 - 2018
Mobile Adtech Market Positions: Growth Forecasts Of Independent/VC-Backed Vendors 2009 - 2018
Mobile Adtech Market Positions: Growth Forecasts Of Publicly Traded Vendors 2009 - 2018