Smartphones in Western Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2015–2020

  • ID: 3600713
  • Report
  • Region: Europe, Western Europe
  • 30 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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Migration to 4G Boosts Smartphone Sales, but Replacement Cycles are Slow and SIM-only Contracts Grow
"Operators need to consider ways of controlling mobile churn that are less dependent on smartphones and adapt their device financing plans to the changes in the value chain."

Western European smartphone markets are driven by the opposing forces of consumers' migration to 4G services, which generates demand for new smartphones, and the emergence of SIM-only dynamics, which are partly driven by consumers' reluctance to replace their existing smartphones. We expect smartphone distribution channels to change too as vendor financing plans become more salient in the region.

This report and accompanying data annex provide:

- regional forecasts for, and analysis of trends that affect, smartphone sales and penetration
- country-level forecasts and trend analysis for France, Germany, Spain and the UK
- operator and vendor approaches in the region, and in the aforementioned list of countries

This report analyses the smartphone markets in Western Europe and describes the trends that affect sales and adoption.

It is based on several sources:
- The internal research, including global and regional telecoms forecasts and the Connected Consumer Survey (conducted in 16 countries in 2015)
- interviews with key stakeholders in the smartphone market
- secondary information from vendors, operators, regulators and other formal sources.

Data coverage

Connections

- Mobile handsets (smartphone or basic phone)
- Smartphones' share

Unit sales

- Mobile handsets (smartphone or basic phone)
- Smartphones' share

Key Metrics

Worldwide
- Unit sales of mobile handsets (smartphones and nonsmartphones)

- Mobile handset connections (smartphones and nonsmartphones)

- Unit sales of smartphones by vendor and by operating system

Western Europe
- Unit sales of mobile handsets (smartphones and nonsmartphones)

- Smartphones’ share of mobile handset connections and unit sales

Country-level
- Smartphones’ share of mobile handset unit sales

Who Needs to Read this Report

- Operator-based strategy executives and mobile device managers who are interested in smartphone market trends, the role of operators as
smartphone distribution channels, and recent changes in device bundling, financing and upgrade plans.

- Device manufacturers that want to identify worldwide and regional opportunities in terms of smartphone unit sales growth and primary regional drivers.

- Smartphone distributors and wholesale executives who are interested in learning more about operator and vendor initiatives for smartphone sales, regional growth expectations and key trends.

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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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5. Executive summary
6. Executive summary: Smartphone sales will benefit from 4G service take-up,
but SIM-only plans will limit growth
7. Worldwide trends
8. Worldwide: Smartphone markets are saturating – operators and vendors
must reassess their priorities
9. Worldwide: Growth in unit sales will depend on emerging markets and will
come mostly from emerging Asia–Pacific
10. Worldwide: Operators are key sources of smartphones in most regions, but
they lost some ground to other channels in 2015
11. Worldwide: Vendor financing is the end-point of gradual shifts in operator
device strategies rather than an abrupt change
12. Worldwide: Vendor financing plans are most likely to succeed in countries
where users are ready for SIM-only contracts
13. Worldwide: Operator bundles are in demand and play a role in
prepaid-to-postpaid migration
14. Worldwide: Apple leads the high-end market and Chinese vendors are
capturing demand at the low end
15. Worldwide: iOS’s market share of unit sales will remain stable at around
15% until 2020
16. Regional trends
17. Western Europe: Migration to 4G boosts smartphone sales, but
replacement cycles are slow and SIM-only contracts grow
18. Western Europe: Key regional trends
19. Western Europe: Operators have lost ground to retailers in 2015, but they
are still central to the smartphone supply chain
20. Western Europe: Apple users score higher NPS for mobile services, except
in Spain where Android dominates
21. Country-level trends
22. France: Operators focus on minimising upfront payments for smartphones;
Windows Phones do reasonably well
23. Germany: Smartphone sales will peak at 31 million units in 2018 as
accumulated demand catches up
24. Spain: Android continues to dominate although iOS mildly improves market
share during flagship launches
25. United Kingdom: Operators place iOS at the core of their portfolios and
marketing efforts
26. Forecast methodology and assumptions

List of figures
Figure 1: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones’ share of mobile handset
unit sales, Western Europe, 2012–2020
Figure 2: Mobile handset unit sales by type, and smartphones’ share of unit
sales, worldwide, 2012–2020
Figure 3: Smartphone unit sales by region, 2014 and 2020
Figure 4: Percentage of respondents who bought their most recent handset
from an operator, 16 countries, and averages for 2014 and 2015
Figure 5: Device bundling and financing plans by type
Figure 6: Seven areas of consideration for operators when assessing the
potential impact of SIM-only and vendor financing take-up
Figure 7: Choice of next mobile tariff type among those that plan to change
their tariffs, by current tariff type, 6 European countries, US and South Korea
Figure 8: Choice of next mobile tariff type among those that plan to change
their tariffs, by current tariff base, 8 countries in MEA and emerging APAC
Figure 9: Smartphone unit sales by manufacturer, worldwide, 2012–2020
Figure 10: Smartphone unit sales by operating system, worldwide, 2012–2020
Figure 11: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones’ share of
connections, Western Europe, 2012–2020
Figure 12: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones’ share of mobile handset
unit sales, Western Europe, 2012–2020
Figure 13: Key regional trends in handset markets, Western Europe
Figure 14: Most recent handset purchase by channel and country, 2015, and
2014 comparison for operators
Figure 15: Operators as a channel for smartphones and iPhones, and NPS
differential of Apple users for mobile services, 2015
Figure 16: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones’ share of mobile handset
unit sales, France, 2012–2020
Figure 17: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones’ share of mobile handset
unit sales, Germany, 2012–2020
Figure 18: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones’ share of mobile handset
unit sales, Spain, 2012–2020
Figure 19: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones’ share in total handset
sales, United Kingdom, 2012–2020
Figure 20: Main enablers and constraints for our smartphone forecasts

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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Data is provided for the following countries

- Austria
- Belgium
- Denmark
- Finland
- France
- Germany
- Greece
- Ireland
- Italy
- Netherlands
- Norway
- Portugal
- Spain
- Sweden
- Switzerland
- UK

Detailed commentary is provided for the following countries

- France
- Germany
- Spain
- UK

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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