However, what if one wants to look farther into the future than just the next three to five years? Predictions based on survey data are just too unstable to trust much more than five years out. There is a rapidly increasing uncertainty level that, at five years out, can run as high as plus or minus X% of the predicted demand. Clearly, beyond this point, predictions, based on current market metrics or survey data, are more of an educated guess. Yet, there is a novel way of predicting, if not consumers’preferences, at least consumers’ proclivity to buy communication services generally. This way is through population age distribution analysis.
When a population is viewed by its age distribution, predictions of future buying behavior can be made with some confidence. Applied at a national or strategic level, such an approach provides reliable insights into current global political dynamics. Applied at the macro-economic level, and to the consumer communication services market specifically, this approach provides a road map for service provider planning.
This SPIE provides an introduction to age distribution analysis; and then applies this approach to predicting the evolution of the consumer communication services market - that is, voice, video, Internet access and wireless. Although the focus of this paper is communication services, the research approach is equally applicable to a wide range of market analyses.
2. How Populations Age
3. Using Demographics to Predict Demand
4. Comparing Two Markets: U.S. and United Kingdom
5. Implications for Communication Service Providers
6. Stratecast - The Last Word